As of 29 January, the number of infections in mainland China has now surpassed the total number of SARS infections, albeit with a death rate two-thirds lower. There are signs that this will soon be a pandemic, as the R0 number appears to be increasing.

The most disturbing thing I’ve seen comes from a study in The Lancet indicating some issues with the initial information from the Chinese government. Whereas China had said that all the initial infections were tied to the Wet Market in Wuhan, the Lancet article indicates that only 66% had visited the market, and that the onset of symptoms in the first patient was earlier than reported. With a two-week incubation, this sets onset back to November.

As an aside, I had never heard the term “wet market” until a few days ago. It turns out that it refers to any market that sells animals, dead animals or produce, as opposed to a “dry market” which sells only durable goods like clothing and electronics. Learning is life-long. Continue Reading...