Tag Archives: Delegate Math

Delegate Math 2020 — The COVID 19 Break

By tmess2 | Published March 22, 2020

Barring a statutory change at the federal level, federal law requires that states choose electors for President on the First Tuesday after the First Monday in November.  While there are other provisions governing the possibility that states are unable to choose electors on that day and the states are free to change the way that they select the electors, it is unlikely that those laws will change — either at the state or federal level.  Likewise, federal law requires that elections for the House and Senate will take place on the First Tuesday after the First Monday in November.    And the Constitution and federal law makes clear when the existing terms of office expire.

There are a lot of questions about what would happen if for some reason elections are postponed in some states.  Do the governors get to appoint temporary Senators in the states for which the term has expired until the elections can be held?  Are the elections merely postponed or must the governor’s call for special elections?  However, for President, what happens is governed by the Presidential Successor Act until somebody is chosen to fill the remainder of the term.  Of course as the Presidential Successor Act would put the Speaker of the House and the President Pro Tempore of the Senate into the White House, the question is whether the House and Senate will be able to convene as normal in early January to choose the people who will be in those positions if such a vacancy occurs.  If they can’t, do the old officers continue over until the House and Senate can convene (allowing one of them to become President)?

In short, while things still need to be worked out, it is more likely than not that some way will be found to hold elections this fall.  In the states that currently rely heavily on voting-by-mail, it is almost certain that the elections will proceed as planned.  And some of the remaining states may try to transition to a vote-by-mail system.  And if there is going to be an election for President, both parties need to continue with the process for choosing a nominee.  As others have noted for this site, there are questions about how the national convention will be restructured to deal with the current crisis and how the states will alter the delegate selection process in light of the current goal to minimize person-to-person crisis.  (I know that, in my state, the delegate selection process has been postponed by almost eight weeks.) Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — Nevada

By tmess2 | Published February 17, 2020

Welcome to the third issue of delegate math for the 2020 delegate selection process.

Nevada is the second caucus state of this cycle.  Like in Iowa, a key part of the caucus process is the opportunity of participants to realign if their initial candidate is not viable.  Generally speaking, in almost all precincts, it will take 15% for a candidate to become viable (except in precincts which elect three or fewer delegates).   Like in Iowa, based on the results in each precinct, each precinct will elect a number of delegates to the county conventions, and it is the count of delegates won (not the raw votes) that will be used to allocate the national convention delegates.

Because of the tourist-heavy nature of the Las Vegas economy, Nevada has two types of precinct caucuses — regular precincts and special “strip caucuses.”  The strip caucuses are held at several casinos for workers who have to work during the regular caucus hours.  The precinct caucuses, on the other hand, basically cover voters living in the individual precinct.  For the precinct caucuses, part of the vote will come from ranked choice-voting by individuals voting at early vote locations.  Like in Iowa, if a presidential contender is viable after the first vote (based on the alignment of in-person voters and the first preference vote of early voters), the supporters of that candidate may not switch to a different candidate prior to the second vote.  During realignment, the supporters of non-viable candidates may switch to a viable candidate or attempt to join with the supporters of other non-viable candidates to reach viability.  As best as I can determine from the rules and guidance published by the Nevada Democratic Party, the first preference of early voters will be considered in determining if a group has become viable — both for the initial alignment and after realignment.  If, after realignment, the first preference of early voters is not viable, those voters will be considered to have realigned to their highest viable preference, but those second preference will not help a non-viable group become viable. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Math 2020 — Iowa

By tmess2 | Published January 29, 2020

We’re back with that quadrennial feature — delegate math.  As we were reminded by the 2016 election, the United States uses an indirect system for electing president.  Under this system, it’s not the total popular vote that counts.  It’s how that popular vote translates into electoral votes.  Likewise, for the nomination, the task is to turn popular votes into delegates.  Back in 2008, the difference between Secretary Clinton and President Obama was the Obama’s campaign success at figuring out where they could gain an extra delegate here and there.

In a short period of time, voting will start with the Iowa caucuses.  While the number of caucuses have dwindled to almost nothing (Iowa, Nevada, and Wyoming being the only real caucus states left), a caucus is different from a normal primary.  In a caucus, rather than showing up, casting a ballot, and then leaving, voters actually have to take part in a meeting in which voting takes place in the middle of the meeting.  The other key feature of a caucus is that voting is public, not secret.  The participants literally go to different parts of the meeting facility depending upon which candidate they are supporting.  Your friends and neighbors get to see who is heading to the Biden corner/room and who is heading to the Gabbard corner/room.    In addition, for the purpose of any later “recount,” participants sign a pledge of support form for their candidate.

For all the states and territories, the first key number is 15%.  Whether in the precinct caucus itself or at the congressional district level or at the state level, a candidate needs to get 15% of the vote to win delegates.  (Some smaller precincts have higher thresholds because they are only selecting two or three delegates, but 15% is still a good general rule of thumb in looking at polling numbers.)  What makes a caucus different than most primaries is that there will be a chance after the initial division of the precinct into the separate candidate areas for voters to realign. Continue Reading...

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