The new Congress convenes on Tuesday.  After the new members are sworn in (including that con artist from Long Island), the first task of business of the House of Representatives is the election of the Speaker.  [CORRECTION:  Before new members are sworn in.]

Traditionally, the election of a speaker has been a formality.  The majority party votes for their chosen speaker, and the speaker is elected on the first ballot.  But, like a southern primary, the election of the speaker requires that a candidate get a majority of the votes (not counting those who vote present).  And representatives have become more willing to vote for a “third” candidate or vote present.  When a party has a working majority, a small segment of the party expressing disagreement over their party’s choice for speaker is simply a statement.  But when a party has a narrow majority, defectors can cause problems.

When the House convenes on Tuesday, the Republicans will have a 222-212 majority (due to the vacancy in Virginia which will not be filled until February).  There are a significant number of (anti-)Freedom Caucus members who think spineless Kevin McCarthy is not sufficiently wacko to be Speaker.  On Tuesday, we will find out if that number is fewer than five (in which case it does not matter) or more than ten (in which case McCarthy will not have a majority on the first ballot) and whether these members will vote for an alternative candidate (in which case five would block McCarthy) or abstain (in which case eleven would make Hakeem Jeffries the speaker). Continue Reading...