-
Recent Posts
Search
Welcome to DCW
Upcoming Events
7/15/24 - GOP Convention
TBD - Democratic Convention
11/5/24 - Election DayTools
Archives
Tag Cloud
2008 Democratic National Convention 2012 Democratic National Convention 2012 Republican National Convention 2016 Democratic National Convention 2016 Republican National Convention 2020 Census 2020 Delegate Selection Plans 2020 Democratic Convention 2024 Democratic Convention 2024 Republican Convention Abortion Affordable Care Act Alabama Arizona Bernie Sanders California Delegate Selection Donald Trump First Amendment Florida Free Exercise Clause Free Speech Georgia Hillary Clinton Immigration Iowa Joe Biden John Kasich Kansas Maine Marco Rubio Michigan Missouri Nevada North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania redistricting Supreme Court Ted Cruz Texas United Kingdom Virginia Voting Rights Act WisconsinDCW in the News
Blog Roll
Site Info
-
Recent Posts
Recent Comments
- DocJess on GOP convention plans remain in flux
- tmess2 on Dems prepare for virtual voting by delegates
- DocJess on GOP Jacksonville money woes continue
- DocJess on Dems prepare for virtual voting by delegates
- tmess2 on GOP now looking at outdoor Jacksonville convention
Archives
- May 2024
- April 2024
- March 2024
- February 2024
- January 2024
- December 2023
- November 2023
- October 2023
- September 2023
- August 2023
- July 2023
- June 2023
- May 2023
- April 2023
- March 2023
- February 2023
- January 2023
- December 2022
- November 2022
- October 2022
- September 2022
- August 2022
- July 2022
- June 2022
- May 2022
- April 2022
- March 2022
- February 2022
- January 2022
- December 2021
- November 2021
- October 2021
- September 2021
- August 2021
- July 2021
- June 2021
- May 2021
- April 2021
- March 2021
- February 2021
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- November 2019
- October 2019
- September 2019
- August 2019
- July 2019
- June 2019
- May 2019
- April 2019
- March 2019
- February 2019
- January 2019
- December 2018
- November 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- July 2017
- June 2017
- May 2017
- April 2017
- March 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- November 2014
- September 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- March 2014
- January 2014
- August 2013
- August 2012
- November 2011
- August 2011
- January 2011
- May 2010
- January 2009
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
- February 2006
- January 2006
- December 2005
- November 2005
Categories
- 2019-nCoV
- 2020 Convention
- 2020 General Election
- 2020DNC
- 2024 Convention
- 2028 Convention
- Anti-Semitism
- Bernie Sanders
- Charlotte
- Chicago
- Civil Rights
- Cleveland
- Climate Change
- Coronavirus
- Coronavirus Tips
- COVID-19
- Debates
- Delegate Count
- Delegates
- Democratic Debates
- Democratic Party
- Democrats
- DemsinPhilly
- DemsInPHL
- Disaster
- DNC
- Donald Trump
- Economy
- Elections
- Electoral College
- Federal Budget
- Freedom of the Press
- General Election Forecast
- GOP
- Healthcare
- Hillary Clinton
- Holidays
- Hotels
- House of Representatives
- Houston
- Identity Politics
- Impeachment
- Iowa Caucuses
- Jacksonville
- Joe Biden
- Judicial
- LGBT
- Mariner Pipeline
- Merrick Garland
- Meta
- Milwaukee
- Money in Politics
- Music
- National Security
- Netroots Nation
- New Yor
- New York
- NH Primary
- Notes from Your Doctor
- NoWallNoBan
- Pandemic
- Philadelphia
- PHLDNC2016
- Platform
- Politics
- Polls
- Presidential Candidates
- Primary and Caucus Results
- Primary Elections
- Public Health
- Rant
- Republican Debates
- Republicans
- Resist
- RNC
- Russia
- Senate
- Snark
- Student Loan Debt
- Sunday with the Senators
- Superdelegates
- Syria
- The Politics of Hate
- Uncategorized
- Vaccines
- War
- Weekly White House Address
Meta
Tag Archives: Maine
Ranked Choice Voting and the Senate
Earlier today, DocJess posted the first Sunday with the Senators of this cycle. I am posting this follow-up on the weird features of Maine election law that could determine whether there is a Democratic majority in 2020.
In Maine, for federal elections, there is ranked choice voting — both for the general election and the primary. While we do not yet know the full list of candidates who will be running in 2020, my hunch is that ranked choice voting probably hurts Senator Collins in the primary but may help her in the general election.
My thinking behind this is that a multi-candidate primary field would make it difficult for any candidate to get more first choice votes than Senator Collins. However, I think that most of the primary challenge to Senator Collins will be from candidates who do not think that she is loyal to the new LePage-Trump version of the Republican Party and see her as a RINO. The voters who support these candidates are likely to rank Senator Collins last among their choices. So if Senator Collins only got 45% or so of the first choice votes, there would be a decent chance (assuming that everybody ranked the entire field) that the strongest of her opponents would pass her once all preferences are distributed. A primary loss by Senator Collins would move the Maine Senate race from lean Republican to likely Democrat.
Posted in Elections, Primary Elections, Senate
Also tagged Ranked Choice Voting, Senate, Susan Collins
1 Comment
Delegate Selection Rules — Alaska, Maine, and Utah
At this time last week, eight of the eighteen states that had used caucuses or party-run primaries in 2016 had released their delegate selection plans for 2020. This week three of the remaining ten released their plans and they are a very mixed bag.
This week, we start out west in Alaska. In 2016, Alaska used a traditional caucus process with the caucuses occurring at the legislative district level. When it came to allocating delegates to the national convention, Alaska used the raw vote totals from the legislative district caucuses to allocate the “district-level” delegates, but used the votes of the state convention delegates to allocate the pledged party leader and at-large delegates.
For 2020, Alaska is switching to a party-run primary that will allow early voting (either electronic or by mail-in absentee ballot). Additionally, the party will run voting centers in key locations that will be open for at least four hours on the primary/caucus date (although there is conflicting language in the draft concerning the times that these centers will be open). All of the delegates to the national convention will be allocated based on the results of the party-run primary. (Like many “primary” states, Alaska will continue to use the local caucuses to choose delegates to the state convention which will elect the actual national convention delegates.)
Posted in 2020 Convention, Delegates
Also tagged 2020 Delegate Selection Plans, Alaska, Utah
Comments Off on Delegate Selection Rules — Alaska, Maine, and Utah
2018 Midterm Election Preview — New England
Sixteen days left to take our country back from the heirs of the anti-federalists and give voice to the silent majority that the President loves to ridicule and marginalize — women, the children and grandchildren of immigrants, the Native Americans whose ancestors were here before any of ours, those who have worked hard to get a college or professional degree so that their children will have better lives than they did, the LGBT community, those who believe in science, those working hard at a minimum wage job trying to make ends meet, the list goes on and on under a president who only values those with money to burn and believes that there is no solemn commitment that we have made as a country that we can’t break merely because it is inconvenient to his agenda.
Over the next week or so, I will have a series of posts breaking down the election by region. Writing from the dead center of fly-over country, I am likely to miss (a lot of) the interesting local races and local color while trying to identify what seem to be the key races. So I am hopeful that we will get some comments pointing out what has slipped under the national radar.
We start with New England — home to the Patriots, the Red Sox, and a tradition of moderate Yankee Republicanism that is on the verge of needing Last Rites (represented primarily at the national level by the Cowardly Lioness of the Senate — Susan Collins — stumbling desperately in the last two years of her career between the conflicting tasks of keeping a majority of Maine Republicans primary voters happy and keeping the majority of Maine general election voters happy).
Maine is an interesting state because it has opted to adopt the Australian system of preferential voting at least for the federal offices. (Court decisions have barred the implementation of preferential voting at the general election for state offices.) The Australian experience is that it is difficult but not impossible for the trailing candidate to win the race on “second choice” votes. (In both primary races in which preferences came into play, the candidate who led after the first round ultimately won the election.) Obvious factors in whether the trailing candidate win are the gap after the first round and how close the leading candidate is to a majority after the first round. Independent Senator Angus King should be re-elected. At this point, the big question is whether the “official” Democratic candidate will gain enough first choice votes to keep Senator King beneath 50%. Even with preferential voting not applying to the Governor’s race, it looks like the Democrat — Janet Mills — will win ending the nightmare that has been Governor LePage. The race for Maine’s second district (the only Congressional seat in New England currently held by Republicans) could come down to the second choice of voters. Most of the polling shows a neck-and-neck race, and I am dubious that any of the polling companies are polling using a ranked choice system.
Vermont is interesting in a different way. In Vermont, a candidate for governor needs 50% of the vote. If nobody gets 50%, the legislature chooses the winner. There are only a handful of times that the winner has failed to get 50% and, each of those times, the legislature went with the candidate who finished first. However, I don’t know if those past races reflect the fact that the winner’s party had the majority of seats or if legislators acted in a non-partisan fashion. There is not a lot of polling in this race. What is out there suggests that the Republican incumbent is likely to finish first but it is unclear if he will clear 50%. There is likely to be a strong Democratic majority in the legislature; so — if the incumbent only gets 49.5% — the question is whether Democrats in the legislature would choose a Democratic candidate who trailed by 4-5% over the Republican who finished first. You also have Senator Bernie Sanders looking certain to be re-elected. The question is how his refusal to accept the Democratic nomination for Senator will influence his race seeking the Democratic nomination for President in 2020 (where he actually does need that nomination to get on the ballot in all 50 states unlike the situation in Vermont).
The rest of New England seems to be mostly calm. Senators Murphy, Warren, and Whitehouse seem set for re-election. The Democrats seem likely to keep all of the House seats that they currently hold. The only seat that seems like it could even be sort of close is New Hampshire’s 1st district. While Democrats would like to take back the Governor’s mansion in New Hampshire and Massachusetts, the Republican governors in those states are personally popular even if the Republican party isn’t. And in Connecticut, while the unpopularity of Governor Dan Malloy had given Republicans hopes of gaining that state, former Senate candidate Ned Lamont appears to have solidified enough of the Democratic majority in that state to be the likely winner.
Ballot questions in New England include a trio of measure in Massachusetts — one capping the number of patients per nurse in health care facilities, one challenging Citizen United, and one an attempted “veto” of legislation prohibiting discrimination based on gender identity. New Hampshire has a very dangerous constitutional amendment on the ballot. The proposed amendment simply states that “An individuals right to live free from governmental intrusion in private or personal information is natural, essential, and inherent.” The reason that this amendment is dangerous is that it uses very broad terms with no clear limits for courts to apply. As we have seen recently in the First Amendment context in the U.S. Supreme Court, judges can use broad rights to block what most people would consider fair and reasonable legislation.
In short, in New England, Democrats are realistically looking at gaining one U.S. House seat and one Governor position (with a very outside shot at a second).
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast
Also tagged Connecticut, Instant Runoff, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Preferential Voting, Rhode Island, Vermont
Comments Off on 2018 Midterm Election Preview — New England
Primary Season — Late Spring
Because each state gets to set its own primary date, primary season is a gradual thing. Putting aside a handful of exceptions (and run-offs), most primaries fall into two clusters. The first cluster occurs in May and June (starting on May 8 and ending on June 26). The second cluster occurs in August and September (starting on August 2 and ending on September 13). During both clusters, most primaries occur on Tuesday, and there is at least one state on each Tuesday (other than May 29).
On May 8, there are primaries in Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. Key primaries are the Republican Senate primary in Indiana and West Virginia. Both are states won by Trump in which Democratic Senators are running for re-election. In Indiana, you have three candidates running for the Republican nomination. It’s not clear that it really matters who wins or that there is much difference between the candidates. West Virginia is a different matter. The Republicans are scared to death that Don Blankenship could get the nomination. Blankenship is the former CEO of one of the state’s larger coal miner and did time in prison related to miners who died due to unsafe mining practices. The national GOP has (through super-pacs) been running adds against Blankenship. In Ohio, the key races are for Governor with both parties having primaries in the race to replace term-limited John Kasich and Ohio’s 12th District in which there is both a regular primary and a special election primary (most of the candidates are the same in both, so both parties should have the same winner for both primaries, but there is always the chance in a close race that there could be a split result).
On May 15, there are primaries in Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. The big story is likely to be the new congressional districts in Pennsylvania. Amazingly, there are no incumbent against incumbent primaries although there could be an incumbent against incumbent general election. Given the newness of the lines, it will be interesting to see how the local interests will influence the candidates chosen.
On May 22, there are primaries in Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky, and a run-off in Texas. In Texas, there are key run-offs on the Democratic side for Governor and the Seventh District. In both contests, the Republicans will be favored but Democrats have a shot. The question for local Democrats will be whether to go with the “purer” candidate ideologically or with the candidate who could win over college-educated Republicans who do not like being part of the Party of Trump.
June 5 is the big day with primaries in Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. California is the tough one to call given its “first two system.” Particularly in close districts, it matters how many strong candidates each party has. In a district (or state-wide for the Democrats) that your party should win, you want a second strong candidate so that you can lock the other party out of the general. If you are slightly behind in the district, you want one strong candidate to assure yourself of a place in the general (and hope that the other party nominate a divisive candidate that gives you a chance to pick up independents and moderates). What you don’t want is three strong candidates which create the possibility (as has happened in the past) that your party could get the most primary votes but still not finish in the top two due to your vote being split too much. (Districts where Democrats could find themselves locked out of the general include the 1st, 4th, 8th, 10th, 39th, 48th, 49th, 50th. The last three are districts that would be targets in November if a Democrat makes it to the final two.) Particularly with Governor being an open seat, the other big question will be whether the Democrats can get both of the general election slots (as they did for Senate in 2016) for Governor and Senate. (The primaries in Mississippi do not include the special election for Senate which will be a “non-partisan” race in November with a run-off if nobody wins a majority.)
June 12 has primaries in Maine, North Dakota, Nevada, South Carolina, and Virginia. In Maine, you have an open race for Governor. In Nevada, you have an open race for Governor and two congressional seats (3rd and 4th). In Virginia, Republicans have a three-way Senate race. You also have an open seat in Virginia 6th and a very important Democratic primary in District 10 which will be a target race in November.
June 19 is the calm week with the only certain primary being for D.C. but the chance at a run-off in Arkansas.
The spring primaries end on June 26 with contests in Colorado, Maryland, New York (federal offices only), Oklahoma, and Utah. There could be a run-off in Mississippi, North Carolina (depending on whether any of the federal offices need a run-off), and/or South Carolina. In Colorado, Governor is an open seat. Additionally, the 2nd District will be an open seat as the Democratic incumbent is running for governor and the 5th District might be an open seat as the incumbent Republican failed to get enough signatures on his petition. (That issue is still being fought in court.) In New York, the interesting race might be the Republican Primary for the 11th district where disgraced former Congressman Michael Grimm is challenging incumbent Congressman Daniel Donovan. In Utah, the big race is the open seat for the U.S. Senate where Mitt Romney is hoping/expecting to do better with primary voters than he did at the Republican state convention with activists.
While technically not a primary, the special election (as in Mississippi, Texas special elections are nominally non-partisan with a run-off in nobody wins) for Texas’s 27th District will take place on June 30. All four of the candidates who will compete in the run-offs on May 22 are on the ballot for the special election. (Whether anybody will drop out after May 22 is to be seen, but you could have the unusual result that a candidate loses on May 22 but makes it to the run-off in the special election due to cross-over votes.)
There could also be run-offs in some states in July depending upon the results in the primaries noted above.
Posted in Democrats, Elections, GOP, House of Representatives, Senate
Also tagged California, Colorado, Don Blankenship, Indiana, Mid-term elections, Mitt Romney, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Pennyslvania, Primaries, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia
1 Comment
Election Night 2016 — What to Look For (Part Three)
As evening turns into night in the Eastern and Central time zones, the pace picks up. For whatever reason, 8:00 p.m. is a popular time for states in the Eastern time zone to close their polls as is 7:00 p.m. in the Central time zone. As discussed in part two, lines at the polls means that the networks typically only have enough results to call races if the races are not close. Most of the states that will be called by 8:00 p.m. are not the races that will decide the election. Because most of the polls will have been closed for two hours, there is a good chance that the Indiana senate race may be called by 8:00 p.m. There is some chance that Georgia (an at-risk state that Trump needs to win) or Virginia (an at-risk state that Clinton needs to win) will be called before 8:00 p.m. Sixteen states will close their polls at 8:00 p.m. as will the polls in part of several other states. While the results from the early states give some clues about the shape of the race, the shape of the race will become much clearer when the returns from these states start to come in.
8:00 p.m. (EST) — The remainder of the polls close in Florida. The polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee. The polls close in the eastern part of Michigan, Kansas, South Dakota, and Texas. Several of these states should have quick calls for president, but several states are key states for the outcome of this election. (Assuming that none of the “close” states from early are called by 8:15 p.m., the projected electoral vote should be approximately 76 for Trump and 55 for Clinton.)
Posted in Elections, General Election Forecast
Also tagged Illinios, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania
Comments Off on Election Night 2016 — What to Look For (Part Three)