Tag Archives: Moscow Mitch

Sunday with the Senators: Let’s Talk Maine

By DocJess | Published August 18, 2019

I have a gut feeling that we can retake the Senate. One of the seats that is definitely on my list is Maine. So let’s take a deep dive into that race…as you certainly know, the incumbent is anti-choice, Bret-Kavanaugh-enabler Susan Collins, who has held her seat since 1997. On the plus side, as I’ve pointed out many times before, she makes great blueberry muffins and passes them out at constituent events. And um…..that’s it, the upside is the muffins.

On the other side, she’s just plain bad news. She wasn’t always this way, but she’s now. She’s got a primary challenger in Derek Levasseur, He’s challenging from the right and says that Collins isn’t supporting Trumpkin enough. He launched a few months ago and has raised about $7,000. At first, I thought I read it wrong and he raised $7 million, but then I put my glasses on and saw it’s $7 thousand. All of that money is from individuals who gave less than $200 each — on the bright side for him, that translates into votes. On the downside, he spent all the money and is now $2 grand in the hole.

Collins, meanwhile, has about $5.5 million CoH, and receives about a quarter of her funding from PACs. But is money everything? Her polling is fascinating. she is now the second lowest polling Senator. The only Senator hated more than she is #MoscowMitch. Read all the juicy details here. But let’s say she gets through the primary, she’ll still need to face a Democrat, and, this being Maine, some third party folks. And remember, Maine has ranked voting. Continue Reading...

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Sunday with the Senators: Moscow Mitch

By DocJess | Published August 4, 2019

After the recent Democratic debates, there was a lot of chatter and whining about Moscow Mitch being the stumbling block to the enactment of any legislation a new Democratic president might want. Cognitive dissonance, kids, they’re missing the point. Moscow Mitch is not assured re-election, nor a Republican Senate. In either of those cases, he becomes a non-issue. So let’s see how we could make that happen.

The current makeup is 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democrats. There are 34 seats up for election, of which 22 are held by the Republicans. Therefore we need to win three seats with a Democratic president, and four if the Orange Menace stays in the White House. Below is a map that shows the “consensus view” of the seats that are up (greyed out states have no contest next year barring resignation or death) and you can click at the bottom of the map and make your own predictions.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

So here are some thoughts: right now, Beto O’Rourke has an 11 point lead on the giant Cheeto in Texas. He lost to Ted by 2.6 points last year. It’s completely possible that if he gave up the pipe dream of successfully running for president in 2020, he could beat Big John. In Colorado, Cory Gardener’s seat is eminently winnable by John Hickenlooper, and he is not going to make the September debate stage (at last count, he had fewer than 14,000 donors, and polling under 1%). But he could beat Cory. And Mark Kelly (astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords) has a real shot in the special in Arizona. So, by my math, that’s three. And my fourth is Kentucky. If Amy McGrath can raise $10 million (yeah, you read that right) she can beat Moscow Mitch. It will take a message honed for Kentucky, and an incredible amount of money for a ground game never seen before in the state, but it’s doable. I don’t know how the Maine primary will turn out, but if Sara Gideon takes it, Susan Collins will be able to dedicate more time to making muffins with those blueberries she grows. (And while I hate her politics, I have it on good authority that she makes awesome blueberry muffins and hands them out at constituent events. And yes, sigh, that’s one of those little tidbits you don’t get from the MSM.) Continue Reading...

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