You may have wondered why Moscow Mitch allowed for a vote to release the whistle blower complaint, and then publicly announced that if the House voted to impeach, the Senate would hold a trial according to established rules. For starters, he’s underwater, with an average -23 favorability. That’s right — that’s average, the latest polling shows him at -24, or 30 favorable/54 unfavorable. He’s got a real challenge running next year against Amy McGrath. There’s no public polling yet, but she’s a strong candidate, and while she lost her last Kentucky race, that gives her the experience necessary to overcome any errors, and let’s face it, while 2018 was a wave, there’s a chance 2020 may be a tsunami. In addition, she raised close to $11 million in Q3, more than most 2020 presidential candidates. Moscow’s numbers for Q3 aren’t out yet, but he had about $7 million CoH at the end of Q2, so she might have bested him.

Mitch didn’t get where he is without being able to read polls, and the constant uptick in voters favoring impeachment has got to be giving him the willies. While there is a dearth of state-by-state numbers, the numbers in favor of the inquiry rise daily, including among Republicans, Evangelicals and white men without college degrees — and that’s not just the Orange Menace’s base, it’s Mitch’s too.

Jeff Flake has said that if there were an impeachment vote in the Senate that was secret, 30 – 35 Republicans would vote to oust General Bone Spurs. But secret isn’t going to cut it, and Moscow Mitch knows that. Thus, he’s keeping his options open. Because his calculus is whether he can, first, keep his seat, and second, hold the Senate in 2020. And those are his only concerns. (No, sorry, folks, he doesn’t actually care about law or history.) Continue Reading...