The next two months will see several elections in our allies/major democracies. 

This weekend is the election in Spain for both houses of their parliament.  In Spain, the lower house is elected by proportional representation on a provincial basis.  While there is a nominal 3% threshold in each province, the (fifty) provinces range from one seat (in which whomever finishes first gets the seat) to thirty-six seats (in which case the threshold makes a real difference as it would take slightly over 2.7% to win a seat).  In the Senate, most of the provinces get four seats.  While voters directly elect most of the members of the Senate, the catch is that voters have one vote less than the number of seats (i.e. three votes in a province with four seats) which translates into the largest party getting three seats and the second-place party getting one seat.  The regional parliaments also get to appoint the remaining fifty-eight members of the Senate.  For this election, there are five national parties (ranging from two Democratic Socialist parties to a Trumpian nationalist party) and several regional parties. 

There are three things to look at in the results from Spain.  First, is there a natural majority for either of the two main blocs (the two Democratic Socialist parties vs. the two center-right party)?  Second, how does the Trumpian (Vox) party perform?  Third, how do the regional parties (which want increased local autonomy/independence) perform?  From the traditional American foreign policy, we would prefer a result that creates a strong functional government capable of being a partner with us.  Russia (and our current administration) would prefer a divided election result with strong performances by Vox and the regional parties pulling Spain further away from NATO and the European Union and potentially splitting Spain (one of the larger European countries) into several separate countries focused on their grievances with each other rather than building a strong Europe. Continue Reading...