It gives me no great pleasure to write this post. I’m a lifelong political junkie and I want to be talking about candidates and issues, yeah, some snark and foibles, but mostly swing states and undecided voters. Not this.

We wrote many times in 2009 and 2010 about the nascent implosion of the GOP, and now in the last 36 hours it has come to pass. There is nothing surprising about the Access Hollywood tape released by the Washington Post.  You knew it was coming since last Monday when the AP released the interviews with cast and crew from The Apprentice. It won’t be the last tape. And none of us political junkies are surprised that The Donald was finally exposed. What happens to the GOP is somewhat sad, but we all saw this coming. The chickens have come home to roost.

Donald Trump is the candidate the GOP earned through years of separation between the Beltway hoi polloi and the rank and file. Blame John McCain because had there been no Spunky, there would have been no tea baggers and life would have been better. Two major notes:

1. The only branch of the established GOP to stick with Trump is the George Wallace contingent.
2. Trump supporters elected him fair and square as their nominee and they have rights like everybody else. Yes, they’re racists and blinded by the Kool-Aid, but they are still registered voters.

Oy Vey.

The Establishment GOP will continue to run away from Donald Trump in an attempt to save their elected positions. The House Republican Caucus is meeting tomorrow morning to see what to do (Hey boys! You should have paid attention to the 2012 Autopsy and followed the suggestions.) To get him off the ticket, however, you need the actual RNC to vote — and they’re not going to invoke Rule 9, nor rely on Rule 12 – many of them are Branch Trumpidians, and none of them face an actual electorate. The elected GOP has no real power here to get him off the ballot. Nor should they be able to: they can fill a vacancy, but he won’t jump ship. Ballots are printed, mailed, returned, early voting has started. Could they replace him after the election and then allow the Electoral College to vote the new candidate? Sure, it happened in 1912, but it would cause a Constitutional Crisis since he isn’t dead, and he didn’t leave voluntarily. This is what a party gets by ignoring its voters.

Will this affect the House and Senate races? That’s the big question. As endangered Republican candidates say “NO! I don’t agree with the sexual predator” – they’re on tape saying they support him. And there will be an incredible amount of money being spent on ads to prove this. Thus, it may be that people who were undecided write in other names, or go with Gary Johnson and then vote the GOP down ballot candidates out of pique. HOWEVER, there are also a whole bunch of Trump supporters in places like Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida who will vote Trump and who would have voted a straight ticket who will now punish the GOP hoi polloi, and that can throw Senate races and maybe even House races.

So get the popcorn makers out, folks, because tonight is going to be a once-in-a-lifetime debate. When Donald brings up Bill, will Hillary say “My husband is not running for anything right now. Are you accusing ME of being a sexual predator? And should we mention that on October 14th, you’ll be in court facing a rape charge related to a 13 year old girl?” I doubt it, but the world would stop. And yes, the court hearing.

Can Donald Trump maintain in front of a small, live, audience which will be asking all sorts of questions? Will he disintegrate into rambling? Will he apologize to Nancy O’Dell directly? To his wife Melania, who was pregnant when he went after Ms. O’Dell? To his former wife Ivanka, for cheating on her with Marla Maples? To former wife Marla, for cheating on her with Melania? America forgives all sorts of stuff, but actual apologies need to be made.

My guess is that The Donald will implode in many ways. Secretary Clinton will get under his skin gently, and Anderson Cooper and the audience will do the rest. We’ll see if he makes it through the opening statements. But the big question will come tomorrow if we see the entire elected GOP run races away from him. The RNC has already cut off his money, but that was a unilateral decision by Reince Priebus. The RNC itself is sticking with their guy (and remember, a lot of the RNC state leadership have been Branch Trumpidians all along.)

Come January, the RNC will put out another autopsy of how they did so poorly and perhaps this time they’ll listen. Perhaps they will find some way to be a party again. But then again, we may start to see two new parties, for a total of four:

• The mainline Democratic Party: what’s left of the DLC
• The Progressive Democratic Party: the Bernie Sanders contingent
• The establishment Republican Party: the Chamber of Commerce, the NRA and the evangelicals
• The Trump contingent: think KKK plus isolationists and other idiots

And make no mistake, there are lessons we need to learn from their insurgency and insanity. We should learn soon, and be the inclusive tent we always were.

Hope for a split screen and watch history, folks.