DCW 2016 Presidential Forecast

By Matt | Published October 24, 2016

Welcome to the latest edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Presidential Forecast, showing Clinton up 321-217, Clinton’s biggest lead of the year, up from our last forecast showing Clinton up 313-225.

The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts. The right hand column shows a running total of Electoral Votes. Find the state that crosses 270, and that’s the tipping point state, which has been Wisconsin since August.

One thing we’re watching is the number of Tossups at the tipping point or higher. This week we’re still at 2: CO and WI. As long as those Tossups in the Blue Wall are out there, that means there are forecasters (we’re looking at you, Rothenberg) who are saying if Trump wins all the Tossups, he has a path to win.

On the other hand, we’re now getting serious blue tinges in FL, NC and NV; AZ is pure Tossup, and Iowa is split between T and RL. But Ohio stubbornly remains all Tossup.

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Links to all the forecasts are at the bottom of the post.

State WPost TPM NBC FHQ ABC CNN Cook R’berg
Update 10/24 10/24 10/14 10/24 10/21 10/20 10/20 10/21
Clinton D 196 263 182 175 201 201 239 239
Clinton-Lean DL 127 60 106 89 107 107 40 24
Tossup T 35 32 92 110 50 50 79 95
Trump-Lean RL 84 23 86 77 22 22 22 33
Trump R 96 160 72 87 158 158 158 147
Clinton Total D 323 323 288 264 308 308 279 263
Trump Total R 180 183 158 164 180 180 180 180
Clinton Avg 321 332 332 330 317 316 316 315 312
Trump Avg 217 206 206 208 221 222 222 223 226
California 55 D D D D D D D D 55
Conn. 7 D D D D D D D D 62
DC 3 D D D D D D D D 65
Delaware 3 D D D D D D D D 68
Hawaii 4 D D D D D D D D 72
Illinois 20 D D D D D D D D 92
Maryland 10 D D D D D D D D 102
Massachusetts 11 D D D D D D D D 113
New Jersey 14 D D D D D D D D 127
New York 29 D D D D D D D D 156
Rhode Island 4 D D D D D D D D 160
Vermont 3 D D D D D D D D 163
Washington 12 D D D D D D D D 175
Oregon 7 D D D DL D D D D 182
Maine 4 D D DL DL D D D D 186
Minnesota 10 D D DL DL D D D D 196
New Mexico 5 DL D DL DL D D D D 201
Michigan 16 DL D DL DL DL DL D D 217
Virginia 13 DL D DL DL DL DL D D 230
Colorado 9 DL D DL T DL DL D D 239
New Hampshire 4 DL D DL DL DL DL DL DL 243
Pennsylvania 20 DL D DL DL DL DL DL DL 263
Wisconsin 10 DL DL DL DL DL DL DL T 273
Nevada 6 DL DL T T DL DL DL T 279
Florida 29 DL DL T T DL DL T T 308
N. Carolina 15 DL DL DL T T T T T 323
Arizona 11 T T T T T T T T 334
Ohio 18 T T T T T T T T 352
Iowa 6 RL RL T T RL RL T T 358
Utah 6 T RL T RL T T RL RL 364
Georgia 16 RL R T T RL RL RL RL 380
Alaska 3 RL T RL RL R R R R 383
Indiana 11 RL RL RL RL R R R RL 394
Missouri 10 RL R RL RL R R R R 404
Texas 38 RL R RL RL R R R R 442
S. Carolina 9 R R RL RL R R R R 451
Kansas 6 R R RL R R R R R 457
Montana 3 R R RL R R R R R 460
N. Dakota 3 R R RL R R R R R 463
S. Dakota 3 R R RL R R R R R 466
Alabama 9 R R R R R R R R 475
Arkansas 6 R R R R R R R R 481
Idaho 4 R R R R R R R R 485
Kentucky 8 R R R R R R R R 493
Louisiana 8 R R R R R R R R 501
Mississippi 6 R R R R R R R R 507
Nebraska 5 R R R R R R R R 512
Oklahoma 7 R R R R R R R R 519
Tennessee 11 R R R R R R R R 530
W. Virginia 5 R R R R R R R R 535
Wyoming 3 R R R R R R R R 538

TPM
FHQ
NBC
Washington Post
Cook
ABC
Rothenberg
CNN

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