By Matt | Published November 7, 2016

Welcome to the final edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Presidential Forecast, showing Clinton up 306-232, down 15 EV from our last forecast, but still above the 300 mark.

The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts. The right hand column shows a running total of Electoral Votes. Find the state that crosses 270, and that’s the tipping point state, finally now longer Wisconsin – Nevada is the new tipping point state.

The convention wisdom is that the Latino vote will win Florida and Nevada for Clinton, and then it’s all over.

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Links to all the forecasts are at the bottom of the post.

State NBC FHQ R’berg WPost ABC TPM Cook CNN
Update 11/7 11/7 11/7 11/7 11/4 11/7 11/7 11/4
Clinton D 182 175 223 186 201 214 214 201
Clinton-Lean DL 93 65 40 89 74 55 65 68
Tossup T 83 134 95 48 75 66 44 65
Trump-Lean RL 108 77 33 119 30 57 57 46
Trump R 72 87 147 96 158 146 158 158
Clinton Total D 275 240 263 275 275 269 279 269
Trump Total R 180 164 180 215 188 203 215 204
Clinton Avg 306 320 309 309 305 304 302 299 297
Trump Avg 232 219 229 229 233 234 236 239 241
California 55 D D D D D D D D 55
Conn. 7 D D D D D D D D 62
DC 3 D D D D D D D D 65
Delaware 3 D D D D D D D D 68
Hawaii 4 D D D D D D D D 72
Illinois 20 D D D D D D D D 92
Maryland 10 D D D D D D D D 102
Massachusetts 11 D D D D D D D D 113
New Jersey 14 D D D D D D D D 127
New York 29 D D D D D D D D 156
Rhode Island 4 D D D D D D D D 160
Vermont 3 D D D D D D D D 163
Washington 12 D D D D D D D D 175
Oregon 7 D DL D D D D D D 182
Maine 4 DL DL D D D D D D 186
Minnesota 10 DL DL D DL D D D D 196
New Mexico 5 DL DL D DL D D D D 201
Virginia 13 DL DL D DL DL D D DL 214
Michigan 16 DL DL DL DL DL DL DL DL 230
Colorado 9 DL T D DL DL DL DL DL 239
Pennsylvania 20 DL T DL DL DL DL DL DL 259
Wisconsin 10 DL DL T DL DL DL DL DL 269
Nevada 6 DL T T DL DL RL DL T 275
New Hampshire 4 T T DL T T T DL T 279
Florida 29 T T T T T T T T 308
N. Carolina 15 T T T T T T T T 323
Arizona 11 T T T RL T RL RL T 334
Ohio 18 T T T RL RL T RL RL 352
Georgia 16 RL T RL RL T RL RL RL 368
Iowa 6 RL T T RL RL RL RL RL 374
Utah 6 T RL RL RL RL RL RL RL 380
Alaska 3 RL RL R RL R RL R R 383
Indiana 11 RL RL RL RL R R R R 394
Missouri 10 RL RL R RL R R R R 404
S. Carolina 9 RL RL R R R RL R R 413
Texas 38 RL RL R RL R R R R 451
Kansas 6 RL R R R R R R R 457
Montana 3 RL R R R R R R R 460
N. Dakota 3 RL R R R R R R R 463
S. Dakota 3 RL R R R R R R R 466
Alabama 9 R R R R R R R R 475
Arkansas 6 R R R R R R R R 481
Idaho 4 R R R R R R R R 485
Kentucky 8 R R R R R R R R 493
Louisiana 8 R R R R R R R R 501
Mississippi 6 R R R R R R R R 507
Nebraska 5 R R R R R R R R 512
Oklahoma 7 R R R R R R R R 519
Tennessee 11 R R R R R R R R 530
W. Virginia 5 R R R R R R R R 535
Wyoming 3 R R R R R R R R 538

TPM
FHQ
NBC
Washington Post
Cook
ABC
Rothenberg
CNN

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