Prior to Mr. Narcissist becoming President, Mike Pompeo was an up and coming Congressman from Kansas about to start his fourth term in what (up to that point) had been the very conservative but not completely bonkers wing of the Republican Party. Since 2017, Mike Pompeo has been one of the handful; of “responsible adults” in the Trump Administration’s foreign policy establishment. (Responsible in the sense that these individuals are not willing to dump our allies and cozy up to authoritarian regimes.)
Mike Pompeo is now facing a choice about what next that may have a key impact on who controls the U.S. Senate in 2021. Back in 2014, Senator Pat Roberts had a tough race for his fourth Senate term — only getting 48% of the vote in the primary and 53% in the general election. While Senator Roberts is a traditional conservative, that’s not conservative enough for many Kansas Republicans. (For almost three decades, there has been a civil war in the Kansas Republican Party between very conservative Republicans and traditional conservatives. The main success of the Kansas Democratic Party has come when the Kansas Republicans have picked candidates who are too conservative thereby driving moderates to vote for the Democratic candidate.) For 2020, Senator Roberts has seen the writing on the wall and had opted to retire rather than face another nasty primary that he probably would have lost.
At this point, multiple candidates have expressed interest in running in the Republican primary for this seat including Spawn of Satan Kris Kobach. As you may recall, the last time we saw Spawn of Satan, he was losing the governor’s race to Democrat Laura Kelly. Many in the Senate Republican leadership and in the Kansas Republican Party fear that, if Kobach wins the Republican nomination (highly likely in a split field), a Democrat could actually win the Kansas Senate race. Looking for a white knight savior, they think that Mike Pompeo would fit the bill, either driving most of the other candidates from the race or at least having enough name recognition and support to get most of the non-Kobach votes.
Mike Pompeo, like almost every career politician in Washington, has bigger ambitions than merely being a Senator, and the question for him is what is best for his future. He has two plausible options. First, he can bow to the wishes of the Senate and Kansas Republicans and get in the race. Doing so, however, would require him to resign as Secretary of State requiring President Trump to name a replacement. Second, he can finish out this term and then run for Governor in 2022.
Which option is best depends in part on what you think will happen in the presidential race in 2020. If you think that we are cursed to another four years of Trump, service in the Trump Administration will be a plus and departing on favorable terms to help the party would put Pompeo in a decent position to run in 2024. On the other hand, if Trump loses in 2020, candidates who served in the Trump Administration (Pence, Haley, and Pompeo) will be less likely to get the nomination. In that circumstance, having just been elected Governor would support passing on 2024 and waiting until 2028 to run for President (when it would theoretically be an open seat). And, in recent years, Governors have been slightly more likely than Senators to win the presidency (since 1960, the tally has been four governors to two Senators to two Vice Presidents to one corrupt businessman).
For now, Mike Pompeo has been saying that he is not running for Senate. But the rumors continue to swirl that he might, and he keeps getting asked to reconsider. As noted above, some of the rumors suggest that the key issue might be working out who will replace him at State. Clearly, given Trump’s love affair with Putin and Kim, there are reasons for traditional Republicans to worry about the damage that Trump could do to long term U.S. interests if he gets somebody at Secretary of State who actually agrees with Trump’s personal foreign policy.
Kansas has a relatively late filing period (ending on June 1); so Pompeo has some time to continue playing Hamlet over the Senate race. However, the longer that he delays, the more other people will make plans to run for Senate. While Pompeo will still be favored if he delays his decision to February or March, it might be a significantly tougher race.
From a Democratic point of view, it’s best if Pompeo stays where he is. Any Republican other than Kobach will be favored to win the Senate race or take the Governor’s mansion back in 2022. Kobach is unlikely to get a second chance at Governor in 2022, but he could very well get the nomination for Senate in 2020. With the number of seats that the Democrats need to gain to take the Senate back away from Mitch McConnell’s grip, every seat in play helps. So we will wait and see what Mike Pompeo ultimately decides.
