Less than three weeks ago, we had Echo Tuesday with six states holding primary contests. At that point in time, COVID 19 was a growing concern. In short order, the party moved the debate between Vice-President Biden and Senator Sanders from Arizona with a full audience to D.C. and no audience and states began to move their primaries to minimize the impact of COVID 19. Now, we have an entirely new schedule for the last three months of the primary season.
Before going into the details of the current schedule, as Matt noted yesterday, there are real issues with holding the Democratic convention in mid-July. Aside from the health issues, there are also issues caused by the revisions to the primary calendar.
First, while the media pays a lot of attention to the initial results on election night, those results are merely the initial results. There are still some absentee ballots and provisional ballots to count (and in the case of vote-by-mail states that number can be very significant). So it can take two weeks or more for the local election authority to finalize their counts. Those counts then have to be sent to the state election authority which has to add all of those results together to get the final official result. In part for this reason, the current rules require that primaries be held no later than June 9. However, some of the primaries are now scheduled for June 23 (and more may join them if the current shutdown is extended). It is almost impossible that those states will have a final result before a July 13 convention.
Second, once there is a final result and we know which candidate has won the delegates, there is the need to choose which warm bodies will actually serve as the delegates. (Admittedly, in recent cycles, the delegates have merely confirmed the results of the primary making the actual selection of the delegates less significant, but you still need these positions filled to have a convention.) There are four basic approaches to filling the district-level delegate slots. First, a very tiny number of states (e.g., Pennsylvania, Illinois) have the delegates run on the ballot. Second, some states (e.g., New Hampshire) hold a pre-primary mass meeting to slate delegates for each candidate. Third, some states (e.g., Georgia) hold a post-primary mass meeting at the district level to select delegates. Fourth, some states (e.g., Kansas, Nebraska) hold a full caucus/convention process after the primary with the district level delegates elected at a district convention or at the state convention. For obvious reasons, the states that pre-slate the delegates or elect the delegates on the primary ballot are in a better position as the delegates are known at the time that the final result is certified.
Likewise, there are three basis approaches to filling the party leader/at-large slots. Some states have the district-level delegates elect some or all of the state-wide delegates. Some states have the state party committee elect some or all of the statewide delegates. Finally,, some states have a state-wide convention elect the state-wide delegates. Needless to say, a party that has the district-level delegates or the state committee fill the state-wide delegate slots is in a better position to elect the state-wide delegates as soon as the primary results are final.
The big problem is that states made the delegate selection rules based on the original primary schedule. That schedule has now changed. Even in states that have already voted, the parties are needing to revise their plans due to the inability to hold the delegate selection meetings for the next several weeks. If the country is back to semi-normal by mid-May, it might be possible for states that have already voted to complete the delegate selection process for a mid-July convention.
As of the early morning on March 29 (barring some change that has not yet reached media attention), the current schedule is as follows:
April 7 — Wisconsin. While this election is a state-run election indications are that Wisconsin is running this as a vote-by-mail election. Wisconsin uses county conventions to elect delegates to district conventions which choose the district level delegates followed by the state committee electing the state-wide delegates.
April 10 — Alaska. This election is now a party-run vote-by-mail election with this date being the deadline for voting. Alaska uses local caucuses to pick delegates to the state convention which picks the national convention delegates.
April 17 — Wyoming. This election has changed from a caucus system to a party-run vote by mail election. This date is the deadline for ballots being received. National convention delegates will be elected by a state convention. With the caucuses being cancelled, it is unclear how state convention delegates are being chosen.
April 26 — Puerto Rico. This is a tentative date that may be rescheduled. District-level delegates are elected on the primary ballot. Commonwealth-level delegates are elected at a commonwealth convention (as are additional district level delegates if a candidate did not have a full slate of delegates on the primary ballot).
April 28 — Ohio. This state-run primary is now a vote-by-mail primary. District-level delegates were slated at a pre-primary caucus and state-level delegates will be chosen by the state committee.
May 2 — Guam & Kansas. Guam is currently set to be a territory-wide convention. Kansas is using a party-run primary. Kansas has not yet officially moved to vote-by-mail only but is encouraging voters to vote by mail. Kansas is using a post-primary caucus system to elect district-level delegates with the state committee electing state-wide delegates.
May 12 — Nebraska and West Virginia. Both are state-run primaries. Apparently, both Nebraska and West Virginia are currently encouraging voters to vote-by-mail with every registered voter receiving an absentee ballot application. Both states will elect district-level delegates at a state convention. Nebraska will also elect state-wide delegates at its state convention with West Virginia using its state committee to elect the state-wide delegates upon adjournment of the state convention.
May 19 — Georgia and Oregon. Georgia has been postponed once and may be postponed again. Georgia uses a post-primary district-level caucus to choose the district-level delegates which then elect the state-wide delegates. Oregon already uses a vote-by-mail system. Oregon elects its district-level delegates at a post-primary district convention and the state-level delegates at the state convention.
May 22 — Hawaii. This is the new deadline to receive ballots in its party-run primary which is now a vote-by-mail primary. Hawaii has already held precinct level caucuses with the state convention to select the national convention delegates.
June 2 — Connecticut, Delaware, Indiana, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and D.C. All of these states use different systems but Montana and New Mexico use a post-primary caucus/convention to pick delegates.
June 6 — Virgin Islands The party uses a territory-wide convention.
And there are three jurisdictions which are currently scheduled to vote after June 9 (the current deadline).
June 20 — Louisiana
June 23 — Kentucky and New York
Kentucky uses a post-primary caucus to select delegates to the state convention which national convention delegates are chosen. Louisiana uses a post-primary district level caucus to elect district-level delegates with the state committee electing state-wide delegates. New York elects district-level delegates on the primary ballot with the state committee electing the state-wide delegates.
The above schedule is in a great state of flux and more changes are possible. I have doubts about the ability of Kentucky and New York to have final results before July 13. And both will have to choose delegates quickly if there are final results. While nothing has been decided at the national level, the current date of the New York primary would seem to be a big obstacle to the currently-scheduled date of the national convention as it is hard seeing the convention starting without a delegation from New York.
