Tuesday is the COVID-19-postponed primary in Kentucky, and a lot has changed since the originally-scheduled date. And those changes put Democrats in a somewhat familiar position — do you vote for the candidate that most closely resembles your position or the candidate with the best chance to win.
For most of the year, Amy McGrath was the strong favorite to win the race. She raised a significant amount of money who saw her background (including her veteran status) as potentially appealing to swing voters who will be necessary to beat Moscow Mitch in November. While she does not have a record, she is perceived as a moderate — a necessity to win in a red state like Kentucky.
In recent weeks, the resurgence of issues surrounding racism have contributed to a surge of support for State Representative Charles Booker. His status as a person of color and his positioning of himself as a progressive have contributed to this rise in support from Democrats who want to take a stand in the general election.
Karl Rove once said that the goal of the Republican Party was to nominate the most conservative candidate who can win. On the flip side, that would mean that Democrats should seek to nominate the most progressive candidate who can win. The problem in Kentucky is that it is unclear that any Democrat can win. In 2008, the last time that Moscow Mitch ran in a presidential election year, the Democrats lost by 5%. There is every chance that Senator McConnell is this generation’s Jesse Helms. As those of us with experience in the politics of the 80s and 90s may recall, every Democrat who ran for Senate against Jesse Helms got between 45% of the vote and 48% of the vote. In other words, Senator Helms numbers were always low enough that he looked vulnerable, but he had enough support to give him a slim majority every time.
If you think that Moscow Mitch will win regardless of who the Democratic nominee is, there is some justification for going with a statement candidate who will strongly defend the progressive point of view. On the other hand, if you think that Senator McConnell can be beat (or at least made to sweat his own race so that he is forcing the national party to put money into Kentucky and not helping candidates in other races, then you want the candidate who can run a close race in November. And, in Kentucky, that requires a candidate who will run a centrist race.
The late polls in this race are contradictory. Some polls show McGrath with a comfortable margin, but one poll shows Booker with a solid lead. Which of those polls are correct and how progressive Democrats resolve the purity vs. we want to win debate will be seen on Tuesday. The whole country and Moscow Mitch are eagerly awaiting the results.
In my spreadsheet …. I have Amy with a 60% chance of winning against MoscowMitch and Charles with a 10% chance of winning. Since the results aren’t going to be in for another week, I’m holding my projections post….but Amy had a legit shot.