The Republicans control redistricting in Georgia, but the current map gives them several challenges.  Several suburban districts that leaned Republican in 2011 are now swing districts held by Democrats.  Additionally, the Republican have to be careful to avoid violating the Voting Rights Act.  And, as in other states, there has been a population shift from the rural areas of the state to the metropolitan part of the state, specifically Atlanta and its suburbs.  Based on the 2019 Census estimates, the First District (southeastern Georgia) is around 5,000 people short; the Second District (southwest Georgia) is over 70,000 people short; the Third District (western Georgia) is around 9,000 people short; the Eighth District (southern Georgia) is over 35,000 people short; the Twelfth District (eastern-southeastern Georgia) is around 20,000 people short; and the Fourteenth District (northwestern Georgia) is around 25,000 people short.  Of these districts, one (Second) is safe Democrat and the others are safe to solid Republican.  Having said that, the biggest overages are the Seventh District (northeastern Atlanta suburbs), the Fifth District (Atlanta), and the Eleventh District (northwestern suburbs) — one toss-up district (Seventh), one solid Democratic district (Fifth), and one solid Republican District (Eleventh).

Given that the safest Republican precincts are in districts that are short residents, and the most Democratic precincts are in the overpopulated parts of the other districts, Republicans are going to have to look carefully at how they move the lines.  It is possible, however, to accomplish their main goals which are to regain the Sixth District (currently D+1) and the Seventh District (currently R+2).  On paper this goal can be achieved.  To accomplish this goal, Republicans will have to have adjoining districts trade precincts.  A good example is Gwinnett County where you could some Democratic precincts move to the Tenth District and some Republican precincts move to the Seventh.  For the Sixth District, the changes are much more blunt with the Eleventh District moving into Marietta in Cobb County to make up for the precincts that it will need to shed to the Thirteenth District (to allow the Thirteenth to shed precincts to the Third District).  The real problem, for the Republicans are how much they can trust the numbers.  Atlanta is a prime example of the suburbs changing quickly.  And using anything other than the 2020 results may make these districts look redder than they actually are.  Minimalist changes — combined with the current attempts at voter suppression in Georgia — may allow the Republicans to temporarily win back the Sixth District and the Seventh District, but the current trends will make it hard for the Republicans to keep them.

There are certainly some changes to my first round of maps that the Republicans could make which would involve adding precincts to districts that are already over in population and taking precincts from districts that are under in population (with other precincts moved around to compensate).  The most likely option for this would be for the Ninth District to give up precincts in northern Forsyth County to the Sixth District and the Seventh District.  The Ninth District would then get some additional precincts from the Tenth which would get precincts from the Fourth District and Seventh District in Gwinnett County (the Seventh would get some precincts from the Tenth in Gwinnett County).  Finally, the Fourth District would get precincts from the Sixth District in DeKalb County.  With some aggressive precinct selection, my final maps showed the Sixth and Seventh Districts as approximately R+7.

That assumes that the Republicans will push aggressively for a 10-4 map.  The problem with a 10-4 map is that, by the end of the decade, the map will probably revert back to an 8-2-4 map if the suburbs of Atlanta continue to trend bluer.  On the other hand, if you reconfigured the Sixth District to make it more of an inner suburb district and the Seventh District to make it more of an outer suburb district, the Sixth would end up as a a lean Democratic district but the Seventh District could be made pretty safe for the Republicans.  So if the Republicans are willing to concede a 9-5 split, it would be a lot harder for Democrats to gain that sixth seat.

And that type of choice reflect what we will be seeing in a lot of states.  Packing and cracking works a lot better if you accept a slightly favorable map.  Locking in a narrow majority is easy.  But, unless you have a big majority in the state, you can create a map that will allow you big wins but that map sets you up to lose big in a bad cycle.

The bottom line is that the new map for Georgia will probably net the Republicans at least one seat.  And they will have to decide if they want to borrow two seats for 2022 and 2024 with the likelihood that the seats are Democratic by 2030 or they can settle for gaining one seat for the entire decade and locking in a 9-5 split.