Redistricting — West Virginia

Redistricting in West Virginia will probably be a very simple process.  Currently, all three districts run east to west with the First District being in the northern part of the state, the Second District in the central part of the state, and the Third District being in the southern part of the state.  Even though the Second District has the most population, it will probably be split in two.  The exact lines will probably depend on influence of the current members.  Obviously, both of the incumbents in the First (the most senior member of the delegation) and the Third (the most junior of the delegation) would rather not get the incumbent in the Second as  a primary opponent.  and the incumbent in the Second (which reaches to the northeastern corner) would prefer to split West Virginia into an eastern district and a western district which would leave him alone in the eastern district and put the two other representatives into the western district.  All three representatives live on the edge of the state (First in the northwest, Second in the northeast, and Third in the southwest) so it is not that hard to draw the lines in a way that determines which two of the incumbents will have to run against each other.

But at the end of the day, the exact lines will only matter to the people who want to represent West Virginia in Congress.  We are long gone from the days of Robert Byrd when Democrats were a dominant force in West Virginia.  At the present time, there just are not enough Democrats in the state, and they are too scattered around the edges to draw a toss-up district.  Both districts will be around R +20.

When I tried to draw the most favorable map that I could for Democrats in West Virginia, I still ended up with that district being around R+14.  And to get that district that linked all of the Democratic precincts in West Virginia, I basically had to draw a  horseshoe with the Democratic voters packed into the horseshoe and the rest of the state filling in that horseshoe.  In other words, a map that looked awful and still did not give Democrats a competitive district.

So, at the end of the day, West Virginia will go from having three Republican representatives to having two Republican representatives for a net loss of one with no chances of Democrats picking up one of two remaining seats, but that loss of one is offset by the gain of one in Montana (which as discussed earlier) will almost certainly go from one Republican representatives to two Republican representatives.  The bigger struggles are going to be in the larger states — California, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania,  Illinois, and Michigan — where some district is going to have be squeezed — and most districts will have to gain new voters.

This entry was posted in Elections, House of Representatives and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink. Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post. Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.