Category Archives: PHLDNC2016

Convention Committees

By tmess2 | Published July 10, 2016

While most of the media attention is currently focused on whom might or might not still be in consideration for vice-president, a key activity over the next several weeks will be the work of the convention committees.

Because the Democrats give candidates a key role in selecting their delegates (and here in Missouri we had a bit of an uproar at our state convention due to the Sanders campaign exercising its right to trim the number of candidates for at-large delegates), the Rules Committee and the Credentials Committee tend not to be that important.  The fight this year was in the Platform Committee which wrapped up its work yesterday in Orlando.  There were several changes to the draft platform adopted at the full committee meeting in Orlando, and the revised draft has not yet been posted on the convention’s website (which does have the original version of the draft platform.)  There were some issues on which the committee had significant splits between Clinton and Sanders delegates.  It is unclear if any of these splits will lead to a minority report and debates on the floor.

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Things to do in Philadelphia During #DNCC (Even if You aren’t Credentialed)

By DocJess | Published July 9, 2016

The Peoples ConventionMany of the events that will occur during the convention are open to everyone. First, there is a parallel convention, the People’s Convention. It’s being run by the People’s Revolution. Their kick-off event is Saturday morning, 23 July.

dnc2016For those of you looking for DNC events, there are meetings and caucuses all day at the Convention Center, beginning on Sunday 24 July.  Many are open to the public, although most require pre-registration. In addition, independent groups are holding functions in Center City, beginning the same day.  There are upwards of 30 events every day,  Many of these events are free, although some are not.  Click this link to see a full listing.

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Security Perimeters and Restrictions for #DNC

By DocJess | Published July 7, 2016

Security ZoneThe most amazing thing that will be confiscated and not returned? Backpacks. Really. How do they expect us to carry our laptops? Huh. But that’s a personal problem, I guess.

But seriously, the Secret Service has announced the road closures for the DNC and it’s a little onerous for people traveling in that part of the world. The map seems small, but if you click on it, it expands and is easy to see.

Now for everything you could possibly want to know about security, traffic and helpful links. Continue Reading...

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Meet the #DNC Delegates: Sabrina Fedrigo

By DocJess | Published July 5, 2016

sabrinaIn the interest of full disclosure, I have known Sabrina since she was a child.

Sabrina Fedrigo is a Bernie Sanders delegate from CD 6. She is a college student and part-time nanny. She lives in Collegeville with her boyfriend, their 2 dogs, 3 cats and a chinchilla.

DocJess: When did you first decide to support Bernie Sanders? Continue Reading...

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Will the IRS Screw #PHLDNC?

By DocJess | Published July 4, 2016

dnc2016While the Cleveland host committee for the RNC has been granted tax-exempt 501(c)3 status, the Philadelphia Host Committee has not. While the Committee applied in May of 2015, and the approval process normally takes about three months, as of 1 July 2016, the IRS “has issues with it of some sort”. (Philadelphia Inquirer, July 3, 2016, page A3.)

The IRS said that the issues are “technical” but gave no details. The IRS requires of a host committee that it spend money for infrastructure projects outside the convention hall.  It appears that the preparation of the Wells Fargo Center, transportation costs and technology might fall under that since they would benefit Philadelphia.

The goal was to raise $60 million, of which $46.5 million would be in cash, and the rest in-kind. $10 million is expected from the state of Pennsylvania, and currently, there is a $4 million gap. Here’s the rub. If the committee cannot get 501(c)3 status, it would convert to a 501(c)6 status. That’s a designation used for business leagues and chambers of commerce and the like. If they do, any monies coming from businesses would be deductible as business expenses, but money from individuals would not be deductible nor tax exempt. Continue Reading...

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Will Clinton or Trump give their acceptance speech outdoors?

By Matt | Published July 2, 2016

Eight years to the weekend that DCW broke the news about Obama possibly giving his acceptance speech outdoors, as DocJess noted, the rumors are flying again:

Discussions are in the works to move Hillary Clinton’s presidential nomination acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention away from the Wells Fargo Center to a larger location, Billy Penn has learned.

Philly Congressman Bob Brady said nothing has been finalized but “there’s talk about it. Continue Reading...

Also posted in DNC, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, RNC | 1 Comment

Delegate Math — Weeks of May 16 and May 23

By tmess2 | Published May 12, 2016

As this week’s primaries showed, with Kasich and Cruz out, it’s only a matter of time until Trump gets to 1,237 delegates.  There are still pitfalls ahead for Trump, but those pitfalls are about the convention going rogue on the platform and the vice-presidential pick.  Whether that happens depends upon how much Trump wants to alter the 2012 platform (which is hard to tell given how vague Trump’s actual positions are) and whether Trump can find an acceptable vice-presidential candidate.   Over the next two week’s the Republicans will have primaries in Oregon (May 17) and Washington (May 24).    Oregon allocates its twenty-eight delegates proportionally with no winner-take-all provision; so Cruz and Kasich should get some delegates, but Trump should take twenty or more delegates.  Washington allocates thirty delegates by congressional district and fourteen delegates state-wide.    Given that Washington has a twenty percent threshold for winning delegates, Trump is likely to get all forty-four.   Including the uncommitted delegates who have pledged to support Trump, Washington should put Trump unofficially over the top.

For the Democratic Party, the next two weeks consists of two primaries (Oregon and Kentucky on May 17), the Nebraska county conventions spread out over the two weeks, the Washington Congressional District conventions on May 21, and the Wyoming state convention on May 28.

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Delegate Math — Week of May 9

By tmess2 | Published May 4, 2016

With Donald Trump being the last Republican standing, delegate math on the Republican side is almost meaningless.  (Of course with early voting, some segments of votes have already been cast and some segment of voters tend to vote against the presumptive nominee.)  On May 10, the Republicans will have primaries in Nebraska (thirty-six delegates on winner-take-all basis) and West Virginia (thirty-one directly elected delegates — three in each district and twenty-two state-wide.  There are some weird restrictions on the twenty-two state-wide delegates that could distort the results if voters do not understand the rules).  Trump still needs 223 more delegates to clinch the nomination.  As such, he will probably not officially clinch the nomination until June 7, but it would take some very bizarre results between now and June 7 to stop Trump from getting the nomination.  In the upcoming weeks, I am sure there will be several posts on this site on what the nomination of Trump means for this year’s elections and the future of the Republican Party.

On the Democratic side, counting superdelegates, Hillary Clinton is approximately 189 delegates short of clinching the nomination.  The main event this week is the West Virginia Primary on May 10.  The delegate breakdown in West Virginia is seven delegates in both the first and second districts, six delegates for both the third district and the at-large pool, and three pledged party leader delegates.  Given votes in similar states, Bernie Sanders has a shot at getting to five delegates (64.3%) in the first and the second and four delegates in the third and at-large.  With an almost certain 2-1 split for the pledged party leaders, that would give Sanders a 20-9 advantage.

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Delegate Math: Week of May 2

By tmess2 | Published April 29, 2016

As a month, May is mostly about delegate selection rather than delegate allocation.  Even on the Democratic side (where some caucus allocations will be finalized), there will be over twenty delegate selection events in various states but fewer than ten delegate allocation events.

On the Republican side, there is just one delegate allocation event — Indiana.  After a good showing this past Tuesday (Trump even apparently got 31 supporters elected as unpledged district delegates in Pennsylvania), Trump looks to have a shot at getting enough delegates to win on the first ballot.  He still needs to win fifty percent of the remaining delegates though (approximately 250).  Indiana is another winner-take-most state  — three delegates to the winner in each of the nine congressional districts and thirty to the state-wide winner.  Indiana is the last best chance for Cruz to prevent Trump from getting the nomination.   After trying to arrange a deal with Kasich and (shades of Ronald Reagan) announcing his VP candidate, Cruz has few angles left to play.  Trump is up by 6% which would likely give him 45+ delegates.  If Cruz can make a comeback (with the help of Kasich supporters), Trump is probably looking at 15 or fewer delegates.  With only around 450 delegates left after Indiana, a thirty delegate swing is a big deal.

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Primary End Game — Democrats

By tmess2 | Published April 25, 2016

Yesterday, I took a look at the role of uncommitted delegates and the selection of delegates (particularly those pledged to withdrawn candidates) could influence the end game of the Republican nomination process — particularly in how many pledged delegates Donald Trump will need to win to have a shot at getting nominated.    Today,  I take a look at similar issues for the end game of the Democratic nomination.  Because the Democratic party uniformly gives candidates a significant role in delegate selection, the issue for the Democratic party is uncommitted delegates (barring an upset in the remaining primaries, entirely automatic delegates) and the later stages of some caucus states.  Again, the starting point will be the Green Papers count of hard versus soft delegates.

Also posted in Bernie Sanders, Delegate Count, Delegates, Hillary Clinton, Philadelphia, Primary and Caucus Results, Superdelegates | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment