Category Archives: RNC

Saturday Night’s Alright for Voting

We’ve got a primary in Louisiana, and caucuses in Kansas, Kentucky (R-only), Maine (R-only), and Nebraska (D-only). We’ll update the delegate counts here as they come in.

Update 11:00: Cruz takes KS, ME. Trump wins LA and KY. Sanders takes KS and NE. Clinton wins big in LA

Pledged DelegatesSuperdelegatesTotal
ClintonSandersClintonSandersClintonSanders
Iowa232162921
New Hampshire915611516
Nevada2015712716
South Carolina391454414
Georgia7329118429
Vermont1646422
Virginia6233127433
Alabama4496509
Arkansas221052710
American Samoa424183
Massachusetts46452016646
Oklahoma1721111822
Tennessee442375123
Texas147752116875
Colorado254193441
Minnesota31461134249
Kansas102311123
Louisiana371464314
Nebraska1015311316
Maine817411218
Mississippi31532347
Michigan6367127567
Northern Marianas42592
Florida1417324216575
Illinois797724110378
Missouri3635114735
North Carolina6047826849
Ohio81621619763
Democrats Abroad4921610
Arizona4233524735
Idaho51812620
Utah62722829
Alaska31311414
Washington2774103774
Hawaii817431220
Wisconsin3848814649
Wyoming774117
New York13910838177108
Connecticut2827154327
Delaware12911239
Maryland60351717736
Pennsylvania106832112783
Rhode Island111392013
Indiana394474644
Guam43593
West Virginia1118621720
Kentucky282723027
Oregon2536733239
Virgin Islands613091
Puerto Rico362464224
California26920664333206
Montana101111012
North Dakota51311614
New Jersey79471229149
New Mexico181682616
South Dakota101021210
District of Columbia164242406
Total221818335474827651881
TrumpCruzKasichRubioUncommitted
Iowa7817
New Hampshire11342
South Carolina5000
Nevada14617
Georgia421816
Vermont88
Virginia178516
Alabama36131
Massachusetts22488
Oklahoma1315123
Tennessee33169
Arkansas16159
Texas481043
Minnesota81317
Alaska11125
Kansas92416
Kentucky171577
Louisiana181855
Maine9122
Puerto Rico23
Mississippi2515
Michigan251717
Idaho1220
Hawaii1171
Virgin Islands1125
District of Columbia910
Guam15
Wyoming12311
Florida99
Illinois5496
Missouri3715
North Carolina292796
Northern Marianas9
Ohio66
Arizona58
Utah40
Colorado34
North Dakota110
Wisconsin636
American Samoa9
New York905
Connecticut28
Delaware16
Maryland38
Pennsylvania17
Rhode Island1135
Indiana57
Total101456215417328

Also posted in Bernie Sanders, Delegate Count, Delegates, DNC, GOP, Hillary Clinton | Comments Off on Saturday Night’s Alright for Voting

Trump and the Future of the Republican Party

Regular readers of this blog know that a recurring topic of discussion has been how long the Republican Party can stay intact as it now is.  For forty years, the Republican Party has been a combination of nativist Dixiecrats, Christian Fundamentalists, economic libertarians, neo-conservatives, and the traditional moderate business establishment.  For most of the forty years, this coalition has been a con job with candidates using enough coded phrases and wedge issues on the campaign trail to keep the nativists and the fundamentalists happy at election time, but focusing primarily on keeping the neo-conservatives happy on foreign policy and the establishment happy on economic issues once in office.

For the first twenty years to thirty years this strategy worked well in most places.  The gradual increase of Hispanic citizens, however, is altering the demographics (at least in Presidential election years), making it difficult to keep the nativists happy and still have a chance at winning the presidential election.  (For Congress and state legislatures, the geographic dispersion of seats plus a little bit of gerrymandering will help the Republicans keep their heads above water for a little bit more).  At the same time, the grassroots are beginning to catch on to the con, and they are becoming restless.

Continue Reading...

Also posted in Republican Debates, The Politics of Hate | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Trump and the Future of the Republican Party

Super Tuesday Delegate Updates

Update: 9 AM Trump and Clinton roll. Cruz takes Texas, Oklahoma and Alaska. Sanders takes Vermont, Oklahoma, Colorado and Minnesota, but trails badly in overall pledged delegates won.. Rubio not having a good night, but pulls out a win in Minnesota.

Pledged DelegatesSuperdelegatesTotal
ClintonSandersClintonSandersClintonSanders
Iowa232162921
New Hampshire915611516
Nevada2015712716
South Carolina391454414
Georgia7329118429
Vermont1646422
Virginia6233127433
Alabama4496509
Arkansas221052710
American Samoa424183
Massachusetts46452016646
Oklahoma1721111822
Tennessee442375123
Texas147752116875
Colorado254193441
Minnesota31461134249
Kansas102311123
Louisiana371464314
Nebraska1015311316
Maine817411218
Mississippi31532347
Michigan6367127567
Northern Marianas42592
Florida1417324216575
Illinois797724110378
Missouri3635114735
North Carolina6047826849
Ohio81621619763
Democrats Abroad4921610
Arizona4233524735
Idaho51812620
Utah62722829
Alaska31311414
Washington2774103774
Hawaii817431220
Wisconsin3848814649
Wyoming774117
New York13910838177108
Connecticut2827154327
Delaware12911239
Maryland60351717736
Pennsylvania106832112783
Rhode Island111392013
Indiana394474644
Guam43593
West Virginia1118621720
Kentucky282723027
Oregon2536733239
Virgin Islands613091
Puerto Rico362464224
California26920664333206
Montana101111012
North Dakota51311614
New Jersey79471229149
New Mexico181682616
South Dakota101021210
District of Columbia164242406
Total221818335474827651881
TrumpCruzKasichRubioUncommitted
Iowa7817
New Hampshire11342
South Carolina5000
Nevada14617
Georgia421816
Vermont88
Virginia178516
Alabama36131
Massachusetts22488
Oklahoma1315123
Tennessee33169
Arkansas16159
Texas481043
Minnesota81317
Alaska11125
Kansas92416
Kentucky171577
Louisiana181855
Maine9122
Puerto Rico23
Mississippi2515
Michigan251717
Idaho1220
Hawaii1171
Virgin Islands1125
District of Columbia910
Guam15
Wyoming12311
Florida99
Illinois5496
Missouri3715
North Carolina292796
Northern Marianas9
Ohio66
Arizona58
Utah40
Colorado34
North Dakota110
Wisconsin636
American Samoa9
New York905
Connecticut28
Delaware16
Maryland38
Pennsylvania17
Rhode Island1135
Indiana57
Total101456215417328

Also posted in Bernie Sanders, Delegate Count, Delegates, DNC, GOP, Hillary Clinton, Primary and Caucus Results | Comments Off on Super Tuesday Delegate Updates

GOP Delegate Counts

Update 5/4: This page will no longer be updated. The GOP delegate count in the sidebar will be updated, based on Green Papers. State-by-state results can be found at Green Papers.

TrumpCruzKasichRubioUncommitted
Iowa7817
New Hampshire11342
South Carolina5000
Nevada14617
Georgia421816
Vermont88
Virginia178516
Alabama36131
Massachusetts22488
Oklahoma1315123
Tennessee33169
Arkansas16159
Texas481043
Minnesota81317
Alaska11125
Kansas92416
Kentucky171577
Louisiana181855
Maine9122
Puerto Rico23
Mississippi2515
Michigan251717
Idaho1220
Hawaii1171
Virgin Islands1125
District of Columbia910
Guam15
Wyoming12311
Florida99
Illinois5496
Missouri3715
North Carolina292796
Northern Marianas9
Ohio66
Arizona58
Utah40
Colorado34
North Dakota110
Wisconsin636
American Samoa9
New York905
Connecticut28
Delaware16
Maryland38
Pennsylvania17
Rhode Island1135
Indiana57
Total101456215417328

1237 to Win.
(Note: Does not show 8 delgates for Carson, 4 for Bush, and 1 each for Paul, Huckabee, and Fiorina, who have all suspended their campaigns).

(Pledged delegate counts from Green Papers). Continue Reading...

Also posted in Delegate Count, Delegates, GOP | 11 Comments

Cruz wins by 1 vote

1 delegate, that is. Initial projections:

Cruz: 8
Trump: 7
Rubio: 7
Carson: 3
Paul:  1 ?
Kasich: 1?

(Politico has it as 8/7/6/2/1 – 24 allocated) Continue Reading...

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Iowa Math

While vote totals are not irrelevant to presidential elections (especially in the primary phase when trailing candidates quickly find that they lack the financial resources to continue), what ultimately matters is not the popular vote, but winning delegates (for the primaries) and electors (for the general).  The delegate math heading into the Iowa Caucuses are different for the two parties for two reasons:  1) the stage at which delegates are bound and 2) the two parties do proportional representation differently.

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A Brokered Convention???

At this time of every cycle, the media begins to speculate about the possibility of a brokered convention.   The speculation rarely goes much further than talking head and the blogosphere.  Over the past fifty years, there have only been a handful of  election cycles in which the ultimate result has been in doubt by the end of the primary process.  The last time that a major party took more than one ballot to choose its nominee was the 1952 Democratic Convention.  This time around, however, the leadership of the Republican Party is talking about the possibility of a brokered convention (although only behind closed doors).  What is different with this cycle?

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Republican Nomination Process — Update

As noted earlier this year, the Republican nomination process is, in some ways, more complex than the Democratic nomination process because the Republican Party gives states more discretion in setting the rules for delegate allocation to candidates.    The Democratic Party  follows relatively uniform rules in which approximately two-thirds of the pledged delegates are proportionately allocated by the results in each Congressional District and one-third of the pledged delegates are proportionately allocated by the results state-wide with a 15% threshold for each.  The complexity on the Democratic side is in figuring out the number of at-large delegates and in each district and working the math on the tipping points for winning a delegate.  On the Republican side, each state has different rules.  Yesterday, the Republican National Committee released a summary of the rules adopted by each state.

For the most part, the Republican rules allocate the delegates to the states (each state getting three per congressional district, and ten at-large delegates with states eligible to get additional at-large delegates based on past election results) and to the territories (with the rules designating how many delegates each territory get), but allow the state to award delegates to the candidates as they see fit.   There are two primary limitations on the states.  First, states holding their primaries (or binding caucuses) between March 1 and March 14 must use some form of proportional allocation.  To qualify as proportional, these states may not set the minimum threshold for delegates above 20%, but can set a lower threshold.  Additionally, these states can establish a threshold — no lower than 50% — at which a candidate wins all the delegates.  Second, if a state does have a preference vote (whether in a primary election or as a straw poll at some level of the state’s caucus process), delegates must be awarded based on that preference with one major exception (discussed below).  Unlike in the Democratic party, delegates are not just awarded based on the preference vote, they are bound by the preference vote and may not change their vote at the national convention (unless released by their candidate).

Given the general lack of rules, each state Republican party has a series of choices to make.  First, do you use a caucus/convention system or do you use a primary to allocate delegates?  Second, do you allocate delegates based solely on the state-wide result or do you also allocate based on congressional district results.  Third, if your allocation occurs after March 14, do you use a proportional system or a winner-take-all system?  Fourth, if you use proportional, what is the threshold for a candidate to receive delegates and do you have a threshold at which one candidate takes all of the delegates?  Fifth, if you use a caucus/convention system, do you use a binding preference vote (and if so, when)?  Sixth, if you use a primary, do you elect delegates directly without regard for preference? Continue Reading...

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Pre-Labor Day Reflect: The State of the Presidential Race: Republican Primary

It is easy to define the Democratic Primary into three or four key questions.  The Republican Primary is an almost infinite number of questions.  However, they ultimately come down into several questions repeated over and  over again — who makes it to Mid-March and when do other candidates drop out.

Right now Trump has a solid lead in the majority of national polls.  While every state has some discretion over their rules,  for the states within the two-week mandatory proportionality window, only Trump is safely over the 20% that states are allowed to set as a threshold for delegates.  Additionally, when you add the other “non-politician” candidates, about 50% of the primary votes appears to be going to “outsider” candidates.

More significantly, there is little or no meaningful gap between a large block of candidates.  There are currently five candidates with between 5-10% of the vote in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.  Right now, it is easier to define who will almost certainly not make it to March 1 (Graham, Jindal, Pataki, and Gilmore) then to guess who will emerge from the pack to save the party from Donald Trump. Continue Reading...

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Why The Donald is Creaming the GOP

Below is a video from this morning’s Up with Steve Kornaki. It’s Omarosa Manigault-Stallworth, who was on The Apprentice for three seasons making mincemeat of Beltway insiders, politicos and pundits alike. It’s spectacular.
She’s right in everything she says. After the jump, more analysis.

Also posted in Politics, Republican Debates | 1 Comment