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Milwaukee gets crucial credit line for 2020 convention bid

Milwaukee checked off an important box in their bid to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention:

Organizers of Milwaukee’s bid for the 2020 Democratic National Convention have cleared the last major hurdle in the city’s quest to host the event by lining up a third-party line of credit, Mayor Tom Barrett said Wednesday.

“I have secured a line of credit, which is guaranteed, that really meets the needs that have been brought to us,” Barrett said. “And I’m continuing to do more.” Continue Reading...

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Casey out, Moulton back in?

Sen. Bob Casey announced on Friday that he will not run for President. However, Rep. Seth Moulton, who previously said the idea of him running for president was “ridiculous“, announced he was going to New Hampshire in February, which puts him back on the potentials list. So we are still at 7 official, and 23 more potential candidates!

Definitely running:

  1. Rep. John Delaney
  2. State Sen. Richard Ojeda
  3. Sec. Julian Castro
  4. Gov. Jay Inslee
  5. Sen. Elizabeth Warren
  6. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard
  7. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand

Potential candidates who have shown some interest: Continue Reading...

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Gillibrand running; who will join next?

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand announced she will start campaigning for the Democratic nomination. That gives us 7 official, and 23 more potential candidates!

Definitely running:

  1. Rep. John Delaney
  2. State Sen. Richard Ojeda
  3. Sec. Julian Castro
  4. Gov. Jay Inslee
  5. Sen. Elizabeth Warren
  6. Rep Tulsi Gabbard
  7. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand

Potential candidates who have shown some interest: Continue Reading...

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And then there were 31

With Tom Steyer declining to run, we’re tracking 31 candidates or potential candidates for the Democratic nomination. We’ve got ’em split into 2 groups. Let us know who we missed, or who you think we have in the wrong bucket.

Definitely running:

  1. Rep. John Delaney
  2. State Sen. Richard Ojeda
  3. Sec. Julian Castro
  4. Gov. Jay Inslee
  5. Sen. Elizabeth Warren

Potential candidates who have shown some interest: Continue Reading...

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Every Vote Counts — Spawn of Satan Edition

Tuesday night saw two very, very close elections.  In a special election in a deep red U.S. House district in Ohio, the Democrat is currently trailing by about 1,500 votes before provisional and the remaining absentee ballots are counted.  In the Republican primary for Governor, Secretary of State (Spawn of Satan) Kris Kobach is leading current Governor Jeff Colyer (who only recently replaced Sam Brownback as governor) by approximately 110 votes as mistakes in the numbers on the Secretary of State’s website are being corrected.

What comes next in both states is slightly different as the process of counting the votes is governed by state law.  In both states, the current count does not include provisional votes — those cast by voters whose names were not on the precinct roll or who lacked proper ID — and late arriving absentee votes (as long as postmarked before the election).  Kansas has a shorter time-frame for these issues.  In Kansas, all absentee votes must arrive by the Friday after the primary and the counties will begin their official canvass — which includes counting all valid provisional and absentee votes this upcoming week (August 13-16).  In Ohio, those who cast provisional ballots have until seven days after the primary (August 14) to submit supporting documentation (e.g., show up with valid ID) to their local election authority and any absentee ballot received by ten days after the primary (August 17) counts with the canvass beginning on the 18th.

Because Ohio has such a long time for absentee ballots to arrive, we still don’t know how many ballots we are dealing with in Ohio.  We know that there are around 3,000 provisional ballots.  We also know that there are over 5,000 people who applied for absentee ballots who did not return them by election day.  How many of those 5,000 absentee ballots are in the mail is the unanswered question.  Generally speaking, provisional ballots tend to lean Democratic but absentee ballots are more of a mixed bag.  In Kansas, there were approximately 9,000 provisional ballots and current estimates are that around 6,000 of those provisional ballots are for the Republican primary.  (As should not be surprising, about 3,500 of the 9,000 are in Sedgewick County — Wichita — and Johnson County — affluent suburban Kansas City with another 1,400 in Douglas — Lawrence/University of Kansas — and Shawnee — the state capitol of Topeka and Wyandotte — less affluent Kansas City suburbs.  The next largest county has about 200 provisional ballots).  I have not seen any count of absentee ballots.

The next step after the canvass is a potential recount.  In Kansas, the law on recounts is something of a paradox.  In the general election,  a recount appears to be automatic if the margin is less than .5%.  For the primary, however, a candidate has to request a recount and post a bond (refundable if the candidate wins the recount) to cover the cost.  What is more significant is that the recount request needs to be made by the second Friday after the election (August 17) even though counties do not have to complete their official canvass until the following week (the last six counties are holding their canvass on the 20th and have approximately 220 provisional ballots).  And if a recount is requested, the recount starts on the 18th and has to finish by the 22nd (so these six counties will be recounting the election day and early voting ballots in one room — or one part of the room — while looking at provisional and late absentee ballots in another room on the 20th assuming that a recount is requested).  In Ohio, a recount is automatic if the final margin goes beneath .5% of the vote (approximately a margin of 1,010 given the current totals).

Will there be a recount in either state?  Almost certainly in Kansas barring an unusual result from the provisional and absentee ballots over the next four days.  While many states use the 0.5% threshold for a recount, a better rule (when candidates are having to pay for a recount) is probably around 0.1%.  (In Minnesota, in 2008, the total swing was around 0.03%).  Normally, in a recount, while it is possible to have a larger swing in  a single precinct, those swings tend to balance each other out with one precinct benefitting candidate A and another precinct benefitting candidate B.  Unless there is a systematic reason for one candidate being undercounted (and there are certain features of a recount that tend to increase the total number of Democratic votes), large swings are unlikely and the amount of the swing as a percentage of the total vote tends to get smaller as the vote total increases.  With approximately 300,000 total votes cast in the Republican primary for governor — a margin of less than 100 could very well flip on a recount and any margin less than 500 should certainly be enough for the candidate trailing on Friday afternoon to request a recount.  In Ohio, the question is how much do the provisional ballots alter the current count.  Gaining 500 votes from 3,000 ballots is well within the realm of possibility.  It is less likely that the recount will change the winner in Ohio’s 12th District, but it could result in a final margin that is even scarier for Republicans than the current margin (and delay Troy Balderson from taking his seat while the House is still in session).

Both of these elections, however, demonstrate how much every vote counts.  Right now, the margin is approximately one vote per county in Kansas.  In Ohio, the current margin is less than three voters per precinct.  Folks like Kris Kobach have been working for the past decade to keep people who might oppose them from voting.  The only way to stop them is to get people to vote.

On a side note, as a Democrat, I can’t figure who I want to emerge from the Kansas recount.  On the one hand, if Kris Kobach wins the primary, the Democrats would have a fighting chance to win the governorship in Kansas.  On the other hand, Kobach could still win the general, and it would be good for American democracy for Kobach’s anti-immigrant and anti-democracy career to be finished (although President Trump will probably try to find some post for Kobach in D.C. — Deputy A.G. maybe or Ambassador to some place that needs help suppressing the vote.)

 

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Charlotte reluctantly agrees to host 2020 GOP Convention

We’re wondered in the past whether a convention would have a problem finding a city to host. Well, the GOP almost found this year. Almost:

After a 3 1/2-hour debate, Charlotte City Council narrowly voted Monday to support hosting the 2020 Republican National Convention.

The final City Council vote was 6-5. Council members debated whether Charlotte could host President Donald Trump without endorsing him and his administration’s controversial policies, but they ultimately decided that the potential benefits outweigh risks to the city.

More than 100 speakers who gave their opinion to City Council were passionate but mostly civil. However, the council debate showed how divided the city — like the nation — is, with a council member comparing Trump supporters to the KKK while others said the convention is Charlotte’s best chance to shine on the national stage. Continue Reading...

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The 2020 Convention — Rules Changes (June 2018)

For both parties, the rules governing the national convention is the product of gradual change over time.  It is a natural desire — shared by both parties — to look back and what went wrong and to try to fix it.  The more intelligent members of both parties understand that every cycle will be somewhat different,; so “fixing” something to stack the deck against a candidate is likely to backfire.  A perfect example is the Republican rule changes after 2012.  In 2012, the Ron Paul campaign was perceived as manipulating the rules to get Ron Paul supporters elected to fill delegate slots won by other candidates.  In response, the rules were changed to bind delegates to vote for the candidate that won the delegates.  Regardless of how one feels about the merits of that change, the result was that the Republican Party establishment (which had pushed for the rule change) was helpless to stop the hostile takeover of the Republican Party by Donald Trump.

After the last convention (following past practice), the Democratic Party appointed a commission (the Unity Reform Commission) to study the rules and suggest changes in certain areas.  In early 2018, The commission’s report then went to the Rules & By-laws Committee (RBC) of the Democratic National Committee.  Among the tasks of the RBC is drafting the actual rules governing the 2020 delegate selection process and the convention process.  Since receiving the report of the commission, the RBC has been considering that report along with looking at other issues related to delegate selection process and has been composing a draft of the rules for 2020.  Later this year, that draft will go to the full Democratic National Committee for a final vote.

While the RBC has discussed a large number of changes, the one change that has gotten some media attention is the rules governing who can run.  Most of the media coverage has, at the very least, ignored the history behind this rule, and suggested that the rules change is targeted at Senator Bernie Sanders.

Understanding the changes requires first looking at the existing rules and then looking at how those rules played out in 2016.  For the Democratic Party, there are a handful of significant documents related to the delegate selection process and the convening of the national convention.  Two of these documents are the Delegate Selection Rules and the Call for the Convention.  The Delegate Selection Rules tell the state parties how to draft their state delegate selection plan and how to run the delegate selection process — what they must do, what options they have, and what they may not do.  The Call for the Convention is about what happens after the delegates are selected — how and when state parties certify delegates, the standing committees that meet before the convention, and the preliminary rules of the convention (subject to change by the convention).

Over the years, there have been some fringe characters who have attempted to call themselves Democrats and run for the Democratic nomination.  As a result, the Democratic Party has had certain rules governing potential candidates.  While the below discusses the rules as they appeared in the 2016 documents, those rules have been the same for several cycles.  For example, the same rules appear word-for-word in the 2008 documents.  In other words, the existing rules that were the subject of the proposed change existed long before Senator Sanders declared an interest in seeking the Democratic nomination.

Looking at the 2016 rules, there were two key provisions in the rules — one in the Delegate Selection Plan and one in the Call for the Convention.  Rule 12.K of the Delegate Selection Plan required that prospective presidential candidates had to be registered to vote (both in the 2016 cycle and in the 2012 cycle) and “as determined by the Chair” have demonstrated a commitment to the goals of the Democratic Party.  As noted above, this rule governs the delegate selection process and is found in the section requiring those seeking to run for delegate to pledge to support a particular presidential candidate.  By inference, if the Chair of the Democratic National Committee determines that a potential candidate is not committed to the ideals and goals of the Democratic Party, then — regardless of how that candidate did in the primary — that candidate receives no delegates and those seeking to serve as delegates may not run for a delegate slot pledged to that candidate.  (For example, in 2012, there were certain individuals — non-public officials — who ran against President Obama and received enough votes to qualify for delegates but were deemed ineligible to qualify for delegates.)

Article VI of the Call for the Convention contains a definition of who is a presidential candidate.  By its language, it implicitly governs who gets their name formally placed into nomination at the convention before the roll call.  It requires that such candidates has accrued delegates during the delegate selection process and demonstrate substantial support  to be considered to still be a presidential candidate at the convention.  Article VI also requires that such a candidate be a “bona fide Democrat,” again as determined by the Chair of the National Committee.  Because Article VI is about the processes at the convention, the convention rules governing the roll call can modify the requirements of Article VI.

Going back to 2016, there was some debate about whether Senator Sanders was a Democrat as defined by these provisions.  (After all, on multiple occasions, he had opted to run for a seat in the House of Representatives and then for a seat in the Senate as an independent rather than a Democrat even though he caucused with the Democrats in both bodies while serving.)  Ultimately, nobody formally challenged Senator Sanders right to run, and the National Party Chair never had to make a ruling.

Before 2016, there was never a major candidate for whom such questions could be raised.  Thus, the vague language of the rules were sufficient.  If the National Chair or a State Chair (under the state delegate selection rules) deemed that a protest candidate was ineligible to receive delegates, it was not a big issue and ultimately had zero impact on who won the nomination.  After 2016, however, it is clear that a candidate with a loose affiliation with the Democratic Party can be a major contender for the nomination.  And 2016 also made clear that, while maintaining an official stance of neutrality, the National Chair will have personal opinions on which candidate(s) would make a strong general election candidate and could use their powers to apply the rules in a manner that — while technically facially neutral — would benefit some candidates at the expense of other candidates.  (For example, in 2020, will official Democratic debates have two divisions if there are too many candidates as the Republicans did in 2016 and how will candidates be assigned between a “preliminary” debate and the main “prime time” debate.)   Thus, in this cycle’s RBC debates, one obvious issue was whether the vague rules on candidate qualifications needed to be more specific.   It is possible, regardless of which candidate you supported in 2016, to come down on either side of the issue.  A more specific rule could support a decision to disqualify a candidate who did not meet those terms, but it could also make it more difficult for the National Chair to disqualify a candidate who met the specific requirements.

From what I have seen on-line, and it is mostly news reports with no links to the current draft (as amended at last week’s meeting) of the delegate selection plan or the call to the convention or any other related documents, the proposed change amends Article VI of the Call.   As noted above, the fact that it is the Call being amended is significant because the Call only takes effect at the Convention itself and can be supplanted by the Convention Rules if the majority of the delegates want to revise its provisions.  The amendment (as approved by the RBC) adds specific criteria to determine who is a bona fide Democrat.  In particular, the new Article requires:  1) that the candidate affirm that he/she is a Democrat; 2) that, if nominated, he/she will accept the nomination; 3) that he/she will run for President (and serve as President) as a Democrat; and 4) that this affirmation be in writing.   The amended Article does not state a date for when the affirmation must be made.  Implicitly, it must be made before the time for filing nomination papers (typically Tuesday or Wednesday morning of the convention).  One would think that, by that time, a candidate who intends to be a constructive part of the convention of the Democratic Party would be able to make those affirmations.  Obviously, an earlier deadline might make it harder for some candidates who might be considering running as an independent if they fail to get the Democratic nomination, but — from a process perspective — there is nothing outrageous about a party insisting that those who are actively seeking its nomination pledge that they will only run for president as the nominee of that party.

While the media wants to frame this change as a continuing fight between the outsiders supporting Senator Sanders and the party establishment, that framing is sort of forced.  (Of course, once the media does that framing, it is easy for those who wish to view everything from that perspective to do so.)  The change is only anti-outsider if you believe that the members of a political party have to accept their processes being abused by “independents” who want to be able to be both “in” and “out” at the same time.  While a party may have to accept that voters reserve the right to not support the candidate who gets the nomination if they disagree with that candidate, a party should be able to require those seeking the party’s support to agree to support the party.

In any case, the proposed change is just a draft.  If people do not like it, lobby your DNC member.  But, before doing so, please understand what the existing rules are.  Taken in context, what looks like a big change in isolation, may actually be a small change that is actually beneficial.

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Milwaukee first bidder for 2020 Democratic Convention

Milwaukee leaders announced [in late February] an intent to bid for the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

“This is a very big day for the City of Milwaukee,” said Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. “We have wanted to make this bid for many years. With all of the progress and momentum our City has right now, this is the perfect moment for Milwaukee to rise on the national stage.” – Milwaukee Journal Sentinal

They are proposing to use the new Milwaukee Buck’s arena, which will open this fall.

And then they brought the bid to DC:

Thursday night in Washington, the people pushing Milwaukee’s bid for the next Democratic convention made the case directly to party insiders at a reception during the Democratic National Committee winter meeting in Washington, complete with a raffle of Bucks, Continue Reading...

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Front-runners for the 2020 conventions?

Politico names the which cities seem to be front runners for the 2020 conventions:

=&0=&Minneapolis, St. Louis, Phoenix, Milwaukee, New York and Columbus.

=&1=&Phoenix, New York, Miami and San Antonio.

Not a bad list. Arizona is an obvious battleground, and you know the Democrats will focus heavily on Wisconsin this cycle. We’ll have more on Milwaukee’s bid over the weekend.

But there is one problem with the list: Columbus isn’t bidding.

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Charlotte looking at RNC 2020 Bid

Charlotte is thinking about bidding for the 2020 Republican National Convention:

The City of Charlotte, working together with key partners and stakeholders, is evaluating options to host the 2020 Republican National Convention.

 This is the first step in submitting a proposal highlighting all that Charlotte has to offer as a convention destination. 

The City of Charlotte hosted the Democratic National Convention in 2012, an event deemed a big success by the DNC. The convention drew approximately 35,000 delegates, media and visitors, becoming the single largest event in the city’s history. The event had an economic impact of more than $163 million.

Bids are due Feb 28th.

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