Monthly Archives: October 2016

DCW 2016 Presidential Forecast

By Matt | Published October 9, 2016

Welcome to the latest edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Presidential Forecast, showing Clinton up 307-231. Our last forecast on Aug 21 showed Clinton up 313-225.

The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts. The right hand column shows a running total of Electoral Votes. Find the state that crosses 270, and that’s the tipping point state. It was Wisconsin in August, and it is still Wisconsin. Clinton’s blue firewall continues to hold (although it is not as strong as we would like) – but if she holds VA, CO NH, PA and WI, she can lose IA, OH, NV, NC and FL and still win.

While we haven’t published the forecast since August, the following graph shows the forecast since June, clearly showing Clinton’s post-convention bump, the September tightening, and Clinton’s recent gains. Continue Reading...

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What If (the Republicans Try to Dump Trump)?

By tmess2 | Published October 9, 2016

Heading into tonight’s debate, the Republican Party is very uneasy.  Even before Friday, things were not going well in Trump land — a poor debate performance, his taxes, his connections to Russia, his record of disgraceful behavior towards women, minorities, and the disabled.  Then came Friday’s latest revelation that Trump is an even bigger cad than we thought.  As Donald Trump continues to implode, the question is what options exist for the Republican establishment to salvage the election.  The problem for the Republican establishment comes in two forms — the political and the legal.

The political problem is the fourteen million people who voted for Trump in the primary (and some additional like-minded people who did not vote in the primary).  While some of these voters might now think that Trump has finally stepped over the line, many of them still support Trump or would be upset if the Republican leadership tried some form of coup to replace Trump.  If eight or nine million Trump supporters declined to support the rest of the Republican ticket (about 5% of the vote nationally), that could make a difference in several races.  On the other hand, Trump — like Todd Akin in 2012 — could become a lead weight pulling down the rest of the party.  From the point of view of the Republican establishment, the best strategy may be quietly shifting resources to states with key Senate, House, and Governor’s races (particularly as Trump lacks a coherent strategy to begin with) and pretending that Trump does not exist.

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29 Days Out

By DocJess | Published October 9, 2016

It gives me no great pleasure to write this post. I’m a lifelong political junkie and I want to be talking about candidates and issues, yeah, some snark and foibles, but mostly swing states and undecided voters. Not this.

We wrote many times in 2009 and 2010 about the nascent implosion of the GOP, and now in the last 36 hours it has come to pass. There is nothing surprising about the Access Hollywood tape released by the Washington Post.  You knew it was coming since last Monday when the AP released the interviews with cast and crew from The Apprentice. It won’t be the last tape. And none of us political junkies are surprised that The Donald was finally exposed. What happens to the GOP is somewhat sad, but we all saw this coming. The chickens have come home to roost.

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Voter Registration and Early Voting

By tmess2 | Published October 2, 2016

Vote by JessIn the United States, unlike most major democracies, election law is primarily set by the state.  Additionally, elections are run by local officials — usually elected in partisan elections.  For those involved in elections (candidates, supporters, and voters),  there are two significant consequences to this aspect of American democracy.  First, every state has its own rules and timetables for registering to vote and for voting.  Second, even within those rules, local officials have a lot of discretion that can influence the results of elections.

To win, campaigns need to do two things.  First, they need to communicate a message that connects to potential voters.  Second, they need to get those potential voters to vote.  The messaging part is like the tip of the iceberg.  It occurs above the surface.  At this time of the cycle, advertisements are a rising tide.  Depending upon where you live and what races are competitive, political ads are slowly becoming more and more omnipresent (ultimately peaking in the week before the election when ads for consumer goods will all but disappear from the air).  But political ads are run out of the campaign headquarters and involve the local activist very little.  It is the part beneath the surface — the get out the vote campaign — that requires a good field operation and local effort.

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