Tag Archives: David Perdue

Georgia on My Mind

By tmess2 | Published December 29, 2020

A week from today, there will be two runoff elections in Georgia for its two Senate seats.  One, the race between Senator David Perdue and Jon Ossoff will be for a full six-year term.  The other, the race between Senator Kelly Loeffler and Reverend Raphael Warnock is for the last two years of former Senator John Isakson’s term.

Georgia, like many southern states, requires a primary run-off if no candidate wins a majority in the primary.  However, Georgia is part of a very small set of states that requires a run-off if no candidate wins a majority in the general election (except for the selection of presidential electors).  It also, like some other states (again mostly in the south), uses a so-called jungle primary for special elections in which all candidates from all parties run on the same ballot in the general election rather than having party primaries to pick candidates for the special election.  Back in November, the Libertarian candidate did just well enough in the Perdue-Ossoff race to prevent anybody from getting a majority, and there were enough candidates running in both parties that nobody got over 35% of the vote with Warnock and Loeffler advancing to the runoff.

As the fact that it is primarily found in the South should indicate, runoff elections have a somewhat racist history in the U.S.  While not the only reason for wanting a runoff, keeping power for the white political and economic establishment against reformers who might support an increased role for minorities (among other things) was a motivating factor. Continue Reading...

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The New Senate

By tmess2 | Published November 7, 2020

Based on where things currently stand, it looks like when the new Senate convenes on January 3, the Republicans will have a 51-48 or 50-49 majority (depending upon the results in Alaska).  First, a word on why there will be only 99 Senators.

At this point, it looks like both races in Georgia are headed to a run-off on January 5.  Senator David Perdue’s current term ends on January 3.  As there will be no winner in that race, the seat will technically be vacant as of January 3.   Senator Kelly Loeffler, however, was appointed to fill a seat.  The term for that seat ends on January 3, 2023.  Under the Seventeenth Amendment, until there is a winner of that special election, she continues to hold that seat.  (For Arizona, that means that as soon as the result is certified, Mark Kelly replaces Sally McBride as the new Senator.  So, if there is a lame duck session in December, the margin will be 52-48 rather than the current 53-47.)

The big issue is whether anything will be able to get through the new Senate.  The real question is whether there is a moderate caucus that could try to leverage both parties against each other to make some real reform to allow the Senate to function.  On the Democratic side of the aisle, Senator Joe Manchin (Senator from Coal Country West Virginia) has to walk a very fine line if he wants any chance at re-election.  Likewise Senator Sinema and Senator-to-be Kelly from Arizona represent a marginally swing state as would potential Senator Osser and potential Senator Warnock from Georgia.   And Senator King from Maine seems to be a true independent.  So, there is a group of four to six in the Democratic caucus that are not going to want to move too fast and might be open to reforms to make the Senate a more “collegial” body. Continue Reading...

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Runoffs and Control of the Senate

By tmess2 | Published October 14, 2020

With less than three weeks to go until election day. A lot of ink has been spilled over how state laws on the receipt and counting of absentee/mail-in ballots could delay knowing who won the presidential election.  But it could take even longer to know who will control the U.S. Senate.

One of the reasons is, of course, that the same delay in counting votes for the Presidential election could also delay counting the votes for the Senate elections.  However, given where the seats are and the current polling average, I expect that most Senate seats will be called on election night.  And it is possible that one party or the other will have a good enough night to get to 51 seats by midnight.

But there is a real chance that control of the Senate will come down to three races.  (At the very least, these three races will impact how comfortable the majority is.  Both parties have a handful of Senators who will occasionally split on a key vote.  Needless to say a 50-50 Senate with Vice-President Harris only voting in the case of a tie is going to be less likely to pass major legislation than a 53-47 Senate especially if the filibuster finally goes the way of the dodo.)  And in all three races, the election may not be over on election night. Continue Reading...

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