Based on where things currently stand, it looks like when the new Senate convenes on January 3, the Republicans will have a 51-48 or 50-49 majority (depending upon the results in Alaska).  First, a word on why there will be only 99 Senators.

At this point, it looks like both races in Georgia are headed to a run-off on January 5.  Senator David Perdue’s current term ends on January 3.  As there will be no winner in that race, the seat will technically be vacant as of January 3.   Senator Kelly Loeffler, however, was appointed to fill a seat.  The term for that seat ends on January 3, 2023.  Under the Seventeenth Amendment, until there is a winner of that special election, she continues to hold that seat.  (For Arizona, that means that as soon as the result is certified, Mark Kelly replaces Sally McBride as the new Senator.  So, if there is a lame duck session in December, the margin will be 52-48 rather than the current 53-47.)

The big issue is whether anything will be able to get through the new Senate.  The real question is whether there is a moderate caucus that could try to leverage both parties against each other to make some real reform to allow the Senate to function.  On the Democratic side of the aisle, Senator Joe Manchin (Senator from Coal Country West Virginia) has to walk a very fine line if he wants any chance at re-election.  Likewise Senator Sinema and Senator-to-be Kelly from Arizona represent a marginally swing state as would potential Senator Osser and potential Senator Warnock from Georgia.   And Senator King from Maine seems to be a true independent.  So, there is a group of four to six in the Democratic caucus that are not going to want to move too fast and might be open to reforms to make the Senate a more “collegial” body. Continue Reading...