No, this post is not about which candidate I believe will actually win Iowa.  Rather, it is about how the networks will report the result in Iowa this evening.

As discussed in last week’s post on delegate math,  the delegate selection plan for Iowa has the Iowa Democratic Party reporting three separate counts from tonight’s caucuses.  And it will be interesting to see how the media treats these numbers in assessing the results.

The first count is the initial preference votes from the precinct caucuses.  This vote is the vote that most accurately reflects the support that each candidate has and is the closest thing to the votes in other states (excluding those with ranked-choice voting).  In years past, this number has not been available to the media.  There are strong arguments for using this number in determining who “won” Iowa. Continue Reading...