DCW 2016 Presidential Forecast

By Matt | Published August 21, 2016

Welcome to the latest edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Presidential Forecast, showing Clinton up 313-225. Our last forecast on June 17 showed Clinton up 298-240.

The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts. The map shows the consensus view, the table shows each forecast that is used. The right hand column shows a running total of Electoral Votes. Find the state that crosses 270, and that’s the tipping point state. Right now, it’s Wisconsin,  but with NH now being Dem-Lean to Dem right now, all of the forecasts are showing Clinton with 273+ Electoral Votes Dem Lean or better.

The map below shows the consensus in each state. Clinton was leading 262-191 in the last forecast, but NH and VA moved to DL, with NV moving back to T, giving an 11 EV swing to Clinton.

Links to all the forecasts are at the bottom of the post.


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
State TPM FHQ NBC WPost Cook ABC R’berg CNN
Update 8/19 8/21 8/15 8/15 8/15 8/12 8/19 8/19
Clinton D 279 178 201 201 223 201 217 201
Clinton-Lean DL 62 95 87 72 50 74 58 72
Tossup T 33 120 75 90 74 72 72 74
Trump-Lean RL 10 64 42 27 27 43 27 33
Trump R 154 81 133 148 164 148 164 158
Clinton Total D 341 273 288 273 273 275 275 273
Trump Total R 164 145 175 175 191 191 191 191
Clinton Avg 315 347 327 317 309 305 305 305 302
Trump Avg 223 191 211 222 229 233 233 233 236
538 538 538 538 538 538 538 538
California 55 D D D D D D D D 55
DC 3 D D D D D D D D 58
Delaware 3 D D D D D D D D 61
Hawaii 4 D D D D D D D D 65
Illinois 20 D D D D D D D D 85
Maryland 10 D D D D D D D D 95
Massachusetts 11 D D D D D D D D 106
Minnesota 10 D D D D D D D D 116
New Jersey 14 D D D D D D D D 130
New York 29 D D D D D D D D 159
Rhode Island 4 D D D D D D D D 163
Vermont 3 D D D D D D D D 166
Washington 12 D D D D D D D D 178
Conn. 7 D DL D D D D D D 185
Maine 4 D DL D D D D D D 189
New Mexico 5 D DL D D D D D D 194
Oregon 7 D DL D D D D D D 201
Colorado 9 D DL DL DL D DL DL DL 210
Michigan 16 D DL DL DL DL DL D DL 226
Pennsylvania 20 D DL DL DL DL DL DL DL 246
Virginia 13 DL DL DL DL D DL DL DL 259
New Hampshire 4 D DL DL DL DL T DL DL 263
Wisconsin 10 DL DL DL DL DL DL T DL 273
Nevada 6 T T T T T DL DL T 279
N. Carolina 15 DL T DL T T T T T 294
Iowa 6 DL T T T T T DL T 300
Florida 29 D T T T T T T T 329
Ohio 18 DL T T T T T T T 347
Georgia 16 T T T T RL RL RL RL 363
Arizona 11 T T RL RL RL RL RL RL 374
Missouri 10 RL T RL RL R RL R R 384
Utah 6 R RL RL RL R RL R RL 390
S. Carolina 9 R T RL R R R R R 399
Kansas 6 R RL RL R R R R R 405
Alaska 3 R RL R R R R R R 408
Tennessee 11 R RL R R R R R R 419
Texas 38 R RL R R R R R R 457
Alabama 9 R R R R R R R R 466
Arkansas 6 R R R R R R R R 472
Idaho 4 R R R R R R R R 476
Indiana 11 R R R R R R R R 487
Kentucky 8 R R R R R R R R 495
Louisiana 8 R R R R R R R R 503
Mississippi 6 R R R R R R R R 509
Montana 3 R R R R R R R R 512
N. Dakota 3 R R R R R R R R 515
Nebraska 5 R R R R R R R R 520
Oklahoma 7 R R R R R R R R 527
S. Dakota 3 R R R R R R R R 530
W. Virginia 5 R R R R R R R R 535
Wyoming 3 R R R R R R R R 538

TPM
FHQ
NBC
Washington Post
Cook
ABC
Rothenberg
CNN

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