DCW 2016 Presidential Forecast

By Matt | Published October 17, 2016

Welcome to the latest edition of the Democratic Convention Watch 2016 Presidential Forecast, showing Clinton up 313-225, up from our last forecast showing Clinton up 307-231.

The forecast is based on a average of pundit and poll based forecasts. The right hand column shows a running total of Electoral Votes. Find the state that crosses 270, and that’s the tipping point state, which has been Wisconsin since August.

One thing we’re watching is the number of Tossups at the tipping point or higher. Last time there were 4 Tossups, 1 (out of 8 forecasts) each for CO, PA, NH and WI. This week we’re down to 2: CO and WI. But as long as those Tossups in the Blue Wall are out there, that means there are forecasters who are saying if Trump wins all the Tossups, he has a path to win.

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Links to all the forecasts are at the bottom of the post.

State TPM NBC WPost FHQ R’berg Cook ABC CNN
Update 10/17 10/14 10/18 10/16 10/14 9/29 10/6 9/22
Clinton D 263 182 196 178 239 214 201 201
Clinton-Lean DL 71 106 121 86 24 59 72 72
Tossup T 21 92 35 110 84 68 68 68
Trump-Lean RL 33 86 52 60 27 33 33 33
Trump R 150 72 134 104 164 164 164 164
Clinton Total D 334 288 317 264 263 273 273 273
Trump Total R 183 158 186 164 191 197 197 197
Clinton Avg 313 337 330 321 314 306 302 299 299
Trump Avg 225 201 208 217 224 232 236 239 239
California 55 D D D D D D D D 55
Conn. 7 D D D D D D D D 62
DC 3 D D D D D D D D 65
Delaware 3 D D D D D D D D 68
Hawaii 4 D D D D D D D D 72
Illinois 20 D D D D D D D D 92
Maryland 10 D D D D D D D D 102
Massachusetts 11 D D D D D D D D 113
New Jersey 14 D D D D D D D D 127
New York 29 D D D D D D D D 156
Oregon 7 D D D D D D D D 163
Vermont 3 D D D D D D D D 166
Washington 12 D D D D D D D D 178
Rhode Island 4 D D D DL D D D D 182
Maine 4 D DL D DL D D D D 186
Minnesota 10 D DL D DL D D D D 196
New Mexico 5 D DL DL DL D D D D 201
Virginia 13 D DL DL DL D D DL DL 214
Michigan 16 D DL DL DL D DL DL DL 230
New Hampshire 4 D DL DL DL DL DL DL DL 234
Pennsylvania 20 D DL DL DL DL DL DL DL 254
Colorado 9 D DL DL T D DL DL DL 263
Wisconsin 10 DL DL DL DL T DL DL DL 273
N. Carolina 15 DL DL DL T T T T T 288
Florida 29 DL T DL T T T T T 317
Nevada 6 DL T T T T T T T 323
Ohio 18 T T T T T T T T 341
Arizona 11 DL T T T RL RL RL RL 352
Iowa 6 RL T RL T T RL RL RL 358
Georgia 16 R T RL T RL RL RL RL 374
Alaska 3 T RL RL RL R R R R 377
Utah 6 RL T RL R R R R R 383
Missouri 10 RL RL RL RL R R R R 393
Indiana 11 RL RL RL R R R R R 404
S. Carolina 9 R RL R RL R R R R 413
Texas 38 R RL R RL R R R R 451
Kansas 6 R RL R R R R R R 457
Montana 3 R RL R R R R R R 460
N. Dakota 3 R RL R R R R R R 463
S. Dakota 3 R RL R R R R R R 466
Alabama 9 R R R R R R R R 475
Arkansas 6 R R R R R R R R 481
Idaho 4 R R R R R R R R 485
Kentucky 8 R R R R R R R R 493
Louisiana 8 R R R R R R R R 501
Mississippi 6 R R R R R R R R 507
Nebraska 5 R R R R R R R R 512
Oklahoma 7 R R R R R R R R 519
Tennessee 11 R R R R R R R R 530
W. Virginia 5 R R R R R R R R 535
Wyoming 3 R R R R R R R R 538

TPM
FHQ
NBC
Washington Post
Cook
ABC
Rothenberg
CNN

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