Over the past decade, Nevada has been a slightly bluish swing state. Most of the Democratic base is in Clark County (Las Vegas) with an outpost in Washoe County (Reno) Of course, Clark County represents the majority of the state’s population. As a result, while state-wide elections are close, Democrats actually have the majority in the state legislature. And that means that this time around, Democrats will control the redistricting.
Before discussing the possible new lines, it is important to note one potential issue with the numbers that I am using. Besides the normal caution that, until the 2020 census numbers are released, we are relying on the 2019 population estimates, Nevada has a complicating factor. In almost every state, prisoners are counted as living in the prison for redistricting purposes. This gives a little bump to the rural counties that tend to want to have prisons and hurts the urban areas that are the source of many of the prisoners (as crime is associated with population density). In Nevada, we are talking an approximate prison population of around 10,000 with around half being in rural parts of Clark County and the other half being in other parts oft the state.
While it looks like the population growth was mostly in Clark County, because of the population movement within Clark County, the First District (Las Vegas) actually is projected to have the lowest population of the four districts — needing around 50-51,000 more people. On the other hand the Third District (southern Clark County) is around 68,000 overpopulated. Since the Third District is a toss-up district, the goal will be to move some Republicans from the Third to the First.
The movement of voters from the Third District to the First District will make the First slightly overpopulated which will require moving some people from the First District to the Fourth District (northern Clark County and central Nevada) which is currently lean Democratic. And most of the precincts that will move to the Fourth District will be solidly Democratic.
Finally, to bring things into balance it will be necessary to move most of the counties in central Nevada to the Second District (Reno and northern Nevada), The Second is around 25,000 people short and is safely Republican. However, it should be possible to move Republicans from the Fourth District to the Second District as most of the rural parts of central Nevada are very red.
In particular, we are probably looking at moving White Pine County, Lyon County, Mineral County, Esmeralda County, and part of Lincoln County to the Second District. This would move the Second District from R+8 to around R+ 15. And only one of the precincts in those counties is a Democratic precinct.
Right now, the Third District is rated as R+2. (Given that Democrats have won six of the last seven presidential votes that rating means that Democrats have a very slight edge in the Third District.) With careful adjustment of the district lines, it’s possible to make the Third District “even” or D+1, but that is probably as far as it can be pushed. (These lines would push the First down to a D+7 district from the current D+12 and push the Fourth District up to a D+2 or D+3 from the current D+1).
The bottom line is that Nevada will probably have one safe or solid Democratic seats and one solid Republican seat. As noted above, it is easy to make the Fourth slightly more Democratic as the northern part of the district is the red part of the district. And the northern part of the First is more Democratic than the First. So the new lines do not look that forced for the Second District and the Fourth District. But trading Republicans in the Third for Democrats in the First would turn what is currently a pretty straight line boundary between the two districts into a zig zagging line. And, the new First District (which is currently close to a rectangle) would look like a jagged blob. If you go with straighter lines (i.e. more compact for the First District), the Third District stays close to its current R+2. Ultimately, the Democrats in Nevada will have to decide how much they want to force the lines to improve their chances in the Third District.
