Tag Archives: Washington

The Midterms-Preview (Part 5)

By tmess2 | Published November 6, 2022

Finally, we reach the end of the evening.  Five hours after the first polls closed in Kentucky and Indiana, we reach 10 p.m. Central ST.  At this time the last polls close in North Dakota and Idaho (covered in part 4).  Likewise, the remainder of the polls (representing the vast majority of the state) close in Oregon.  And, even though both states have a significant number of mail-in votes (as is true for several of the western states discussed in earlier posts), the polls will close in California and Washington.

I’ll start with Washington.  Washington has a top two primary (as does California).  Unlike Califronia, all of the races feature a Democrat against a Republican.  While there are some polls showing a potentially competitive race for Senate, I’m just not seeing it.  Washington is too blue in recent years.  Even in a red wave, Senator Patty Murray should win.  Most of the polls making this state seem close come from polls sponsored by Republican-affiliated groups.  While they may end up being right, even they are merely showing a close race.  The current split in the House is seven Democrats and three Republicans.  There are three seats that could flip.   The Third District is currently held by the Republicans, but, in the primay, the incumbent representative barely finished in third after having the integrity to vote to impeach President Trump.  Whether moderate Republicans will vote for the Democrat in the general and flip this seat — for the next two years to the Democrats — is the big question.  In a red wave, the Republicans have a chance at taking the Eighth District and the Tenth District.  The Tenth District (basically a swatch southwest of Seattle from Tacoma to Olympia) is more likely to stay Democratic.  The Eighth District (an exurban/rural district to the east of Seattle) looks more like a swing district, but Democrats are still favored.  Because of mail-in ballots, it typically takes several days to figure out who wins close races.

Moving south to Oregon, the big race is for Governor.  And it’s a classic argument for ranked-choice voting.  Business interests have pushed a moderate Democrat to run as an independent, and this candidate may take just enough votes to allow the Republicans to win by a narrow plurality.  The race is a pure toss-up.   Senator Ron Wyden is solidly favored to be reelected which might just have enough coattails to allow the Democrat to win the open race for governor.  In the House, the current split is four Democrats to one Republican with one new seat.  In the Fifth District, the Democratic incumbent lost in the primary to a progressive challenger.  There is a risk that the progressive nominee is too progressive for the district which runs from the suburbs of Portland into a rural part of the state to the south and east of Portland.  The Sixth District is the “new” district and is a little bit geographically smaller than the Fifth, but like the Fifth it runs from the immediate suburbs of Portland into the rural areas to the south and west of Portland.    The Republicans also have outside chances in the Fourth District, an open seat, which runs along the Pacific Coast in the area to the south and west of the Fifth and Sixth.  If the Democrats get all three of the seats, they could potentially keep the House.  In a red wave, the Republicans could gain all three seats. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting — Washington

By tmess2 | Published June 29, 2021

Like New Jersey, Washington uses a bipartisan commission to draw its lines.  Unlike New Jersey, the rules for Washington provide that, to the extent possible, the lines should respect geographical boundaries and the boundaries of political subdivisions.  Additionally, the lines are required to be fair and promote competitive districts.

And in a pattern that we have seen in other states, the districts in the major metropolitan areas now have excess voters and the more rural districts are now short voters.  And in Washington, that could hurt the Republicans.  The three districts currently held by Republicans (Third District in southwest Washington, Fourth District in central Washington, and Fifth District in eastern Washington) are a combined 50,000 people short.  The Sixth District in northwestern Washington is another 32,000 people short.  Meanwhile, the most Democratic district in the state (Seventh District — Seattle) has around 40,000 excess population and the First District (north central Washington) and Eighth District (eastern King County and central Washington) have a combined 25,000 excess population.  The only district that is close to being a majority minority district is the Ninth District (part of Seattle and its eastern suburbs).

There are some maneuvers that could reduce the number of split counties.  For example, King County is large enough to contain two whole districts with some left over.  Thus, I moved the part of the Seventh District in Snomish County to the Second District.  And I exchanged some precincts in Snomish County from the First District to the Second District while giving the part of the Second District in Whatcom County to the First District.  Likewise, I gave all of the Tenth District precincts in Mason County to the Sixth (which also has to expand into Thurston County and additional Thurston County precincts to the Third District.  To bring the Fifth up to quota, I gave all of the precincts in Walla Walla County to the Fifth District along with the Eastern half of Okanogan County.  That, in turn, required the Fourth District to expand westward in Whatcom County.  An argument can be made for rearranging the Fourth and Fifth Districts to give the southeastern part of the state to the Fourth District and leaving the Fifth District to the northeastern part of the state. Continue Reading...

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Redistricting 2021 — The Numbers

By tmess2 | Published May 1, 2021

On Monday, four days ahead of its latest target date and almost four months behind the statutory date, the Census Bureau released the national and state-level results from the Census including the apportionment numbers that determine how many representatives each get.  As can be expected, there are multiple different tables summarizing the data in different ways for us number geeks.

The bottom line table shows the apportionment population (both those living in the state and those residing overseas — like military personnel — who call that state home), the number of representatives that each state is getting, and the change in representation.   We will get back to the change in a minute, but the big level number is that the apportionment population is slightly over 331 million.  As such, the average size (mean) of each congressional district is just under 761 thousand.  Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming have fewer people than the average congressional district.  While the apportionment formula does not work for calculating the population needed for the first representative, even Wyoming has enough population to be entitled to three-quarters of a representative.

If, D.C. and Puerto Rico were states, Puerto Rico would be just ahead of Utah (which has four representatives) and just behind Connecticut (which has five representatives) and D.C. would be between Vermont and Alaska.  Given that Puerto Rico is only slightly larger than Utah (which was not close to getting a fifth representative and far enough behind Connecticut, Puerto Rico would be due for four representatives.  If  both were states, the five states that would lose a representative would have been Oregon, Colorado, and Montana (all of which gained a seat), California (which lost a seat), and Minnesota (which barely avoided losing a seat).  The chart of priority values that allows us to consider the impact of adding Puerto Rico and D.C. also shows that Minnesota barely held onto its last seat and New York barely lost its seat.  Apparently, given the formula, Minnesota would have lost that seat if it had 24 fewer people, and New York would have kept its seat if it had 89 more people.  (The disparity in numbers is caused by the fact that the two states have different number of seats. Continue Reading...

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Election Night Preview — Part 5 (11 PM EST to Sunrise)

By tmess2 | Published October 31, 2020

Recent elections have been so close that between the inability to call states and the large number of electoral votes on the West Coast, the news media has been unable to call the presidential election before 11 PM EST.

Before going into the states that will be closing at 11 p.m. or later, some words about the process of projecting a winner.  Each network has a team that makes the decision on when to project.   For all intents and purposes, this team is in a sealed room with no knowledge about what the talking heads or saying or whether other networks have made a projection.   There are lots of data that these teams look at: 1) election day exit polls; 2) early vote exit polls; 3) polls of those who voted by mail; 4) the reported early vote; 4) how many mail-in ballots remain to be counted; 5) “key” precincts (key in the sense that the team knows the typical vote in those precincts and can judge the swing in those precincts); 6) which precincts (and counties) have not yet reported.  Basically, while the margin of error in exit polls makes it difficult to call a close (52-48) race based on exit polls, you can call a landslide (60-40) based on exit polls.  For those in which exit polls show a close race, you need enough votes to make a call.  And if the early results are consistent with a close race, you can’t make a call into the outstanding vote is too small to realistically swing the race (i.e. the remaining precincts are in areas that favor candidate X who is ahead or candidate Y would need 95% of the remaining vote and has been getting 80% of the vote in similar precincts).  One fact that could hinder making projections and lead to a state being uncalled on election night is a large number of uncounted absentee ballots (due to a state not being able to count before election day) or a large number of absentee ballots not yet returned in states that have a post-election day deadline for receipt of absentee ballots if postmarked by election day.

At 11 p.m., we will have partial closings in the remaining parts of Idaho, North Dakota, and Oregon.  Of these three states, most of the voters Idaho and North Dakota are in the part that closed at 10 p.m. EST.  However, in Oregon, most of the voters live in the Pacific time zone which will close at 11 p.m.  The entirety of the state also closes for California and Washington,  At midnight, the polls close in part of Alaska and in all of Hawaii.  Finally at 1:00 a.m., polls close in the remainder of Alaska. Continue Reading...

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August 4 Primaries — Arizona, Michigan, and Washington

By tmess2 | Published July 25, 2020

As the calendar flips around to August, we are about to hit a rush of state and congressional primaries.  Some states (e.g., California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois) hold their state and congressional primaries on the same day as the presidential primary.  Others (e.g., Florida) hold a separate presidential primary with the state and congressional primaries occurring later in the year.  And most of the states with separate primaries will hold them between August 1 and mid-September.  (In addition, there is the postponed Connecticut primary.)

Earlier this week, I discussed the  two states holding primaries on August 4 that I am most familiar with (Kansas and Missouri).  (And if I hear another ad attacking a hardcore pro-life Republican for saying something even slightly pro-choice fifteen years ago, I may get physically ill.)  The other three states holding primaries on August 4 are Arizona, Michigan, and Washington.

In Arizona, the biggest race is the special election for the remaining two years of the Senator John McCain’s term.  Mark Kelly is the only candidate on the ballot on the Democratic side.  It is likely that interim Senator Martha McSally will be the Republican nominee.  She does, however, have primary opposition.  Her opponent has some money, but not really enough to run a successful campaign.  So unless there is a lot of silent opposition to her among Arizona Republicans, she should win the primary.  (There was one poll that compared Kelly against both McSally and her primary opponent, and the primary opponent did a little bit better but not much better against Kelly.)  In 2018, the Democrats won 5 of the 9 congressional seats and none of the races was particularly close.  At this point, I am not hearing anything out of Arizona that points to any of the primaries being interesting. Continue Reading...

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2020 Delegate Math — March 10

By tmess2 | Published March 6, 2020

There is just a little bit of room between Super Tuesday and March 10 for everyone to catch their breath.  Over the past seven days, over half of the candidates have dropped out, and we are left with three candidates (Joe Biden, Tulsi Gabbard, and Bernie Sanders.)

While we are down to three candidates, one word of warning is appropriate.  As we saw on Super Tuesday, some states have no excuse early voting or mail-in ballots.  On Super Tuesday, we saw some significant differences between the early vote count and the “election day” count.  Simply put, people who voted early may have voted for a candidate who was no longer actively running.  It is unclear if any of these candidates will ultimately win a delegate, but some of these candidates did get a significant number of votes in some states.  The extra seven days should lessen this effect, but there could be — depending on the state — a significant number of voters who voted before February 28th, and some of these voters went with one of the five candidates who are no longer running.

There are seven contests which will conclude on March 10.  (I use the term conclude because one of them — Democrats Abroad — is a party-run primary in which the polls are open for almost one week and others allow early voting.)  Besides Democrats Abroad, the other six contests are Idaho, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Washington.  While nominally styled as a caucus, North Dakota is a party-run primary.  Idaho, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, and Washington are state-run primaries.  (Washington like California relies heavily on mail-in ballots which can cause a delay in getting final results.)  Under the rules of the Democratic Party, all of these contests are binding and delegates will be allocated based on the votes cast for each candidate. Continue Reading...

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Delegate Selection Plans — Wyoming and Update

By tmess2 | Published April 13, 2019

As more delegate selection plans are posted on-line, we have two states that have confirmed that they are switching from a caucus to a state-run primary.  The first is Minnesota.  Previously, the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party had informed the Minnesota Secretary of State that it would be participating in the state-run primary, but we now have the draft plan which bases delegate allocation on the results of the primary.  The other state is Washington.  When we looked at the draft plan for Washington last month, the Washington Democrats had submitted two plans — one based on the caucus and one based on the primary.    Since then, the state of Washington finalized the scheduling of the primary for March (moving it up from May) and, at last weekend’s state committee meeting, the Washington Democrats opted for the primary-based plan.

With these two changes, we were down to a handful of states.  Yesterday, Wyoming released their draft plan for 2020.  Wyoming is keeping with a caucus system using, as in the past, a county caucus as the first step.  While there is not a specific set date in the plan, it does indicate an intent to hold the county caucuses on a weekend in March which would be earlier than the mid-April date from 2016.  To meet the goals of making access to the caucuses easier for voters, Wyoming is tentatively calling for allowing those who are unable to attend the county caucuses to participate by submitting a “surrogate affidavit.”  The exact details of how this will work is still being discussed and is not clear from the current draft.  (The name suggests a proxy vote, but my hunch is that — either at the final plan approved by the state or the final plan as amended in response to the national Rules and By-laws committee requests — it will be more like a typical absentee ballot.) 

The Wyoming plan uses the preference vote at the county caucuses to elect state convention delegates.  It uses a separate preference vote at the state convention to allocate the national convention delegates.  This part of the plan is clearly contrary to the national party rules.  In relevant part, Rule 2.K.5 requires that the delegate allocation be locked in based on the final preference vote at the first determining step.  In Wyoming’s plan, the first determining step is the county caucuses.   As such, assuming that Wyoming does not correct this part of the plan in the final draft, it is likely that the Rules and By-laws Committee will require a change prior to approving Wyoming’s plan.  Given what the other states are doing, Wyoming will probably be given the option of using either the raw vote totals (which they have used in the past) or the state convention delegates won.  As noted in previous posts, using state convention delegates won eliminate the effect of high turnout in some parts of the state but can also penalize candidates who are get just over 15% of the raw vote state-wide (as those candidates are likely to miss the threshold in some of the counties converting 13% of the vote in those counties into 0% of the delegates potentially causing the candidate to slip beneath 15% if the delegates won state-wide).  Continue Reading...

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2018 Mid-term Elections — Pacific Coast

By tmess2 | Published November 1, 2018

After starting in the Northeast with Maine. we finally reach the West Coast.  Given the number of Congressional seats in California, the West Coast will be a key part of any Democratic majority in the U.S. House.  The bad news, however, is that there are so few Republican seats left here (approximately 20 seats total), that the gains will be rather minimal as a percentage of the total seats available (71 seats).

In Washington, it looks like Democrats will keep the U.S. Senate seat by a comfortable margin.  In the House, Washington is one of two states (California being the other) with a top-two primary.  In practical terms, that creates the possibility that both candidates could be Democrats, both candidates could be Republican, or that the second candidate is an independent or third-party candidate.  Of the ten seats in Washington, Republicans were  shut out of the general election in two seats, leaving eight seats where a Republican will face a Democrat.  Republicans currently hold four seats.  Right now, the Democrats are slight favorites in the Eighth, underdogs in the Third, and have an outside chance in the Fifth (currently held by the highest ranking Republican woman in Congress, Cathy McMorris Rogers).

In Oregon, the Democratic governor is a slight favorite in her bid for re-election but this race is too close for comfort.  Democrats control four of the five U.S. House seats in Oregon, but the one Republican seat is so red that it is unlikely that the Democrats will win that seat.

In California, the top two system has resulted in a significant number of races in which one of the two parties was shut out of the general election.  At the top of the ballot, the U.S. Senate race features two Democrats.  Incumbent Senator Diane Feinstein looks likely to be re-elected.  She has done just enough to keep enough Democrats happy, and there are enough Republicans in the state to make it hard to win running to her left.  While the Republicans did manage to get a general election candidate in the race for Governor, a good result would be for their candidate to break 40%.  In the U.S. House, the Republicans were shut out in eight districts — three of which will feature two Democrats (Sixth, Twenty-seventh, and Forty-fourth) and five of which will feature a Democrat and an independent or third party candidate (Fifth, Thirteenth, Twentieth, Thirty-Fourth, and Fortieth).  However, the Republicans were long shots in all of these districts.  The Democrats only got shut out in one district which will be a Republican vs. Republican general election, but it was one which the Democrats would have had a shot at winning (Eighth).   Besides the Eighth, Republicans hold thirteen seats in which they will face a Democrat in the general election.  Democrats are strong favorites in three of these seats and slight favorites in four others.  There are three other seats in which Democrats have a decent shot at pulling an upsets.

In Hawaii, Democrats currently control everything, both Senate seats, the Governor’s mansion, and both U.S. House seats.  In the four races on the ballot (all but one Senate seat), Democrats are solid favorites.

That leaves Alaska.  Alaska is one of those interesting paradox.  While it is in actuality the most socialist state in the U.S. (earning enough revenue from control over natural resources to not only fund the state government but also give each resident a significant annual stipend), that allows its voters and politicians to otherwise follow very conservative policies.  Like some other red states, Democrats require the Republicans to overreach and go too far to the right (or be personally unpopular) for the Democrats to have much of a chance.  The current governor is an independent, but he has quasi-withdrawn (technically still on the ballot) and endorsed the Democratic candidate.  That should make the election somewhat close, but the Republican is still favored to regain the governor’s mansion.  Representative Don Young has represented Alaska for most of the time that it has been a state (since 1973).  His age (and questionable practices) has made him somewhat vulnerable in recent cycles (getting just over 50% in three of the last five races), but Democrats have not been able to close the deal yet (with a significant percent of voters supporting third-party candidates).  Once again, it looks like Representative Young will be near 50% (and maybe even below 50%) but the question is whether the Democratic candidate can pull together all the votes from people who think it is time to have a new representative.   Helping is the fact that there are no other candidates actually on the ballot, but there are two write-in candidates.

Looking at referendums, California, as always, has a handful of issues.  The most significant is an attempt by Republicans to repeal recent gas tax increases that help pay for transportation.  The problem for Republicans is that most voters recognize the need for that transportation spending.  Thus, this referendum may actually backfire on them.  Recent polling is split, but is trending against the proposal.  Washington has three significant propositions.   One establishes additional training requirements for law enforcement officers and would restrict their ability to use force during arrests.  Another establishes a carbon tax.  The last enacts a series of reasonable gun control measures (waiting period, background check, raising minimum age to twenty-one,

Looking at the region overall, because Democrats already control most of the U.S. Senate seats (all but the two in Alaska that are not on the ballot this year) and most of the Governor’s mansions (except for the independent in Alaska), this region will not see much change in those offices except for either a Democrat or Republican replacing the independent in Alaska.  Out of the twenty U.S. House seats currently controlled by Republicans, Democrats should win approximately eight seats, and could win as many as fourteen seats.  As with the other regions, turnout is the key to turning a significant gain into a big wave in the U.S. House.

With five days left until votes are counted (or at least the counting starts given the increasing reliance in this region on mail-in ballots), this post is the last of the regional summaries.  Over the weekend, I intend to make at least one (maybe more) posts on what to look for as results come in to estimate if the Democrats will take the House and what will happen with the Senate.

 

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Late Summer Primaries

By tmess2 | Published July 15, 2018

While a slim majority of states hold their primaries (at least in non-presidential years) in May and June, most of the rest of the states hold their primaries in August and the first part of September.  With the caution that there are always races that develop at the local level outside the glare of the national media (see New York 14), here is what to look out for over the next two months.

Before the next round of primaries begin, there are run-offs in July.  The biggest of the run-offs is probably the Georgia Governor’s race on the Republican side where both candidates are trying their best to out-conservative each other.

The late summer primary season kicks off on August 2 with Tennessee.  The big race in the fall will be the U.S. Senate seat, but the primaries do not appear to be competitive.  The primaries for Governor on the hand may be more competitive.  While none of the Congressional seats are likely to be competitive in the fall, the Republicans have several decently funded candidate running for the open seat (the Republican incumbent is one of those in the Governor’s race) in the Sixth District.

There are several primaries on August 7 — Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington — along with the special election in Ohio’s 12th District.   In Kansas, the big primary will be the race for Governor.  Kris Kobach (currently Secretary of State) has made a national reputation for the anti-immigrant legislation that he has gotten other states to adopt.  Jeff Colyer has been governor since January (when Sam Brownback resigned to become an ambassador).  And the current Insurance Commissioner (a significant office in Kansas) is trying to run as an outsider.  In Kansas Second, the Republicans have a competitive primary for an open seat (probably safe, but not absolutely safe in November).  The Democrats have a couple of solid candidates in Kansas Third which could become competitive if the Democrats have a strong showing in November.  In Michigan, there are multiple candidates in both parties running for governor, but the primaries do not appear to be competitive.  There are Democratic primaries in Michigan’s Sixth, Seventh, and Eighth District, all currently held by Republicans but potentially winnable in November.  With Representative Sandy Levin retiring in Michigan’s Ninth and the resignation of Representative John Conyers in Michigan’s Thirteenth, both districts have competitive primaries.  (Complicated in the Thirteenth by the primary for both the regular term and the special election for the remainder of this term being held simultaneously. )  Similarly the retirement of the Republican Representative in the Eleventh District (a lean Republican seat) has led to competitive primaries on both sides.  Missouri should be quiet.  While he might not get a solid majority, Josh Hawley should win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senator as none of the other candidates has emerged as “the” alternative.

Washington, like California last month, is a top two primary.  With a total of twenty-nine candidates running for Senate, it will probably take less than 20% to finish second.  Washington’s Third is winnable in November if a Democrat makes the top two but with four Democrats and three Republicans running, there is a chance of a Republican finishing second to the Republican incumbent.  Similarly, with twelve total candidates and four Democrats and three Republicans running for Washington’s Eighth District (an open seat currently held by the Republicans), a weird split could cost Democrats a seat that they should win in November.

Hawaii’s primary is on August 11.  There are competitive primaries on the Democratic side for Governor and for the First District.

On August 14, there are primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin.  In Connecticut, the key primary is for governor.  The out-going governor is somewhat unpopular.  Thus, while the state is solidly Democrat, there is a chance that Republicans win the general election.  In Minnesota, the big primary is the Governor’s race.   While Democrats will hold the seat in November, the primary to fill the open seat in Minnesota’s Fifth could be interesting.  Minnesota’s Eighth (another open seat caused by the incumbent running for state office) will be tough to hold as it leans Republican but the Democrats have a potentially competitive primary.  In Wisconsin, there is a potentially competitive Republican primary for Senate and a potentially competitive Democratic primary for Governor.  With Speaker Ryan retiring, both sides have interesting primaries in Wisconsin’s First.

On August 21, there are primaries in Alaska and Wyoming.  In Alaska, the big race is the Republican primary for Governor.  The current Governor is an independent, elected with the tacit support of the Democrats.  There is a credible Democrat running for Governor, so it is unclear how the general election will play out.  Wyoming has potentially competitive primaries on both sides.

On August 28, you have primaries in Arizona and Florida.  In Arizona, the big race is the Republican Senate Primary featuring the “establishment” candidate (Representative Martha McSally) against two “outsider” candidates (Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio).  If either of the two outsider wins, Democrats should pick up this Senate seat in November.  If Representative McSally wins, the November vote could be close.  The Senate race is creating primaries for both parties in Arizona’s Second (currently held by Representative McSally) which could be winnable for Democrats in the fall.   In Florida, the big primary is for Governor on both sides.  Looking at the U.S. House races (and with over a month to go, it’s hard to tell what will develop), the races that currently look interesting are the open (Republican held) Sixth District with potentially competitive primaries on both sides, the Democratic primary in Florida’s Ninth (featuring an incumbent against a former representative), both primaries for the open (Republican held) Fifteenth District, and both primaries for the open (Republican held) Twenty-seventh District.  These House primaries represent an opportunity for three Democratic gains in November if the Democrats get a good match-up.  Oklahoma will also have run-offs for multiple offices.

In September, the last batch of states hold their primaries — Massachusetts on September 4, Delaware on September 6, New Hampshire on September 11, Rhode Island on September 12, and New York wraps it up with its state primaries on September 13.   In Massachusetts, the big primary is the Democratic primary for the open Third District.  In Delaware, the most competitive primary may be the open race for Attorney General.  In New Hampshire, the focus is on both Congressional seats (both currently held by Democrats) which are swing seats.  You have potentially competitive Republican primaries in both seats, and, with the First District being an open race, you also have a potentially competitive Democratic primary for that seat.  In both Rhode Island and New York, the key primary seems to be for governor.  In New York, the Attorney General’s race could also feature competitive primaries.

While I have focused on Congressional seats and state-wide races, there are a lot of important primaries for state legislative seats, particularly for state senate.  In most states, whomever is elected to the state senate this fall will still be in the state legislature in 2021 and, thus, will have a vote in the next round of redistricting.  However, these races tend to float under the national radar making it difficult to identify which state senate primaries (and even state senate general elections) are worthy of closer consideration.  If interested in finding the key races in November, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee‘s website is a good place to start.

As we have seen this past two years, both at the federal level and at the state level, it matters which party is in the majority in the legislative branch and which party holds key state offices regardless of which party controls the White House.  Congress can either be a patsy holding sham hearings designed more to frustrate efforts to get at the truth or it can be a champion for the issues that matter to the American people.  State governments have the ability to aid federal efforts or to resist.  And many key issues are actually decided in the halls of state legislatures rather than in Congress.

If you live in one of the states that still has a primary, please do your homework and find the best Democratic candidate in your district to support.  Having run for local office in one of these states, I can state that canvassing for a summer primary is grueling on the candidate (stocking up on water is a must)and any volunteer assistance is very, very welcome.  If your state has already held its primary, your local candidates will need help — both time and money — for the fall.  Most important of all is that your vote matters to your local candidate.  Local races can be decided by a very small number of votes.

 

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Election Night 2016 — What to Look For (Part Five)

By tmess2 | Published November 7, 2016

capitolThere are potential ways that the votes could come in tomorrow that would lead to one of the candidates reaching 270 before 11 p.m. (EST).  It is also theoretically possible that one party or the other could wrap up the Senate or the House by 11 p.m.   Both, however, are very unlikely in the absence of a clear landslide.  The last batch of states represent 10 likely electoral votes for the Republicans and 78 likely electoral votes for the Democrats.  (To make up for the 78, Clinton would essentially have to win all of the contested states.  To make up for the 10, Trump would need to win Michigan or Pennsylvania or Wisconsin in addition to the other contested states.)  The Republicans are defending twenty contested House seats in these states (and it is unlikely that all of the House seats from the earlier states will have been declared.)  The Republicans have three Senate seats in the last batch of states and the Democrats have two (not counting California in which the two candidates in the run-off are both Democrats).

11:00 p.m. (EST) — The polls in most of the remaining states close.  In particular, the remaining polls in Idaho, North Dakota, and Oregon close.  All of the polls in California, Hawaii, and Washington close.  Of the state-wide races, the only potentially close race is governor in Washington.  Most of these races should be called pretty quickly.

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