Category Archives: Senate

Midwest Senate Races

With a little over two weeks to go, there are two Senate races in the “farm belt” part of the Midwest that are relatively close — Kansas and Iowa.

Kansas has been a pleasant surprise.  The Republican leadership in D.C. dumped a ton of money into the Republican primary to defeat Spawn of Satan Kris Kobach, and most people assumed that, having succeeded in getting Roger Marshall the nomination, the Republicans could go back to ignoring Kansas.  But a funny thing has happened.  Apparently, the divisions in the Republican Party haven’t healed.  While Trump looks likely to win Kansas, his numbers are rather low for a Republican in such a deep red state.  And if Trump only gets in the mid-50s, Roger Marshall can’t afford to bleed any support away.

Part of the problem for the Republicans is that Kansas is a geographically big state.  While about one-third of the state lives in close proximity to Kansas City, the other two thirds are pretty scattered.  And that means that candidates running their first state-wide race have to introduce themselves to a lot of people who have never heard about them before.  While both candidates face this problem, the Democratic candidate, Barbara Bollier had only minimal opposition in the primary which meant that she could run positive ads introducing herself as a former moderate Republican who only became a Democrat because the Kansas Republican Party had fallen off the far-right cliff.  Meanwhile, Marshall had to deal with a very nasty campaign in which many of his past sins were broadcast to the rest of the state for the first time.  In the end, Marshall won the primary because the party leadership told the voters that he was the only viable alternative to Kobach and that Kobach couldn’t win, not because Kansas voters liked Marshall. Continue Reading...

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Runoffs and Control of the Senate

With less than three weeks to go until election day. A lot of ink has been spilled over how state laws on the receipt and counting of absentee/mail-in ballots could delay knowing who won the presidential election.  But it could take even longer to know who will control the U.S. Senate.

One of the reasons is, of course, that the same delay in counting votes for the Presidential election could also delay counting the votes for the Senate elections.  However, given where the seats are and the current polling average, I expect that most Senate seats will be called on election night.  And it is possible that one party or the other will have a good enough night to get to 51 seats by midnight.

But there is a real chance that control of the Senate will come down to three races.  (At the very least, these three races will impact how comfortable the majority is.  Both parties have a handful of Senators who will occasionally split on a key vote.  Needless to say a 50-50 Senate with Vice-President Harris only voting in the case of a tie is going to be less likely to pass major legislation than a 53-47 Senate especially if the filibuster finally goes the way of the dodo.)  And in all three races, the election may not be over on election night. Continue Reading...

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The Confirmation Hearings

In the past five years, we have seen the Turtle (Senator Mitch McConnell) go from the unprecedented blocking consideration of a Supreme Court nomination made eight months before an election change into the Hare trying to force an unprecedented vote on a Supreme Court nomination made after Labor Day prior to the election.  While the Senate did not have to approve the nomination of Merrick Garland in 2016, the very rules that the Republicans are relying on now to justify their consideration of Amy Coney Barrett mandated giving Judge Garland a hearing and a vote (at least a procedural vote).   And given the modern procedures, giving Judge Barrett a vote before the election requires cutting the process short.  The simple fact is that conservative Republicans are trying to pack the court.  While, barring some type of miracle, Democrats will not be able to prevent a vote from taking place before the election, there are some issues that should be front and center at the confirmation hearings that will take place this week.

At the top of the list is health care.  While the nominee will probably try to evade the question, it is important to make crystal clear that — if confirmed on the current schedule — Judge Barrett may be the one vote that removes the current protection for people with preexisting conditions.  In the November argument session, the Supreme Court will consider the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act.  This case arises from the 2012 decision upholding the Affordable Care Act.  In that decision, after rewriting the law to avoid finding that the Affordable Care Act was authorized by the impact on interstate commerce, the 5-4 majority found that the individual mandate was authorized as a tax.  When the Republican Congress failed to repeal the entire act but did repeal the tax, Texas and other red states filed the current suit alleging that the repeal of the tax also repealed the individual mandate and the rest of the Affordable Care Act.

While Judge Barrett will probably try to avoid talking about the merits of the case (as she will be sitting on the Supreme Court when this case is heard), she should be at least forced to explain her approach to one of the key issues in the case.   That issue is “severability.”  Stripped of legal jargon, severability is about whether one invalid clause in a bill or statute requires the courts to reject the entire bill.  Under most of the recent decisions, there is no plausible basis for the Supreme Court to strike the entire Affordable Care Act because Congress expressly decided to repeal one part and leave the rest intact. Continue Reading...

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Tomorrow’s Massachusetts Primary

Tomorrow is the Massachusetts primary. It’s a fascinating microcosm of campaigns. If you’re a political junkie (LIKE ME!) you’ve been following it really closely. While the 4th CD is a complete toss up (with a bunch of good options), the 1st CD is a battle between a really good guy (Richie Neal) who is being challenged by a guy who skirted the (possibly fake) sexual accusations against him.

Sometimes these challenges make sense — notably this year, Eliot Engel’s loss. Which was no great loss in the grand scheme of things: Engel was not that productive, and he’d lost touch with his District. But Richie Neal? One of the authors of the ACA, and the new NAFTA, Chair of Ways and Means. With a great body of legislative accomplishment that have been good for his district and for the nation. Challenger Alex Morse has said he would have voted against the CARES Act. He felt it didn’t go far enough. This shows a complete naivete of both necessity and political process. You want to be aspirational? Fine. But don’t do it when people need immediate financial relief from disaster. Morse believed that $600 a week wasn’t enough, and the $1,200 wasn’t enough…too many Alex Morses and no one would have gotten anything because those were the top numbers the House was going to be able to wrest from the Senate.

And then there’s the Ed Markey – Joe Kennedy Senate primary, which is actually the race, as the victor will win the seat in November. It’s astounding to me that Kennedy is challenging Markey not so much on issue grounds (their views are similar, although where there is a difference, Markey is more left than Kennedy) but because he’s OLD. No one ever says Ruth Bader Ginsburg is too old, as an aside. Continue Reading...

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August 4 Primaries — Arizona, Michigan, and Washington

As the calendar flips around to August, we are about to hit a rush of state and congressional primaries.  Some states (e.g., California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois) hold their state and congressional primaries on the same day as the presidential primary.  Others (e.g., Florida) hold a separate presidential primary with the state and congressional primaries occurring later in the year.  And most of the states with separate primaries will hold them between August 1 and mid-September.  (In addition, there is the postponed Connecticut primary.)

Earlier this week, I discussed the  two states holding primaries on August 4 that I am most familiar with (Kansas and Missouri).  (And if I hear another ad attacking a hardcore pro-life Republican for saying something even slightly pro-choice fifteen years ago, I may get physically ill.)  The other three states holding primaries on August 4 are Arizona, Michigan, and Washington.

In Arizona, the biggest race is the special election for the remaining two years of the Senator John McCain’s term.  Mark Kelly is the only candidate on the ballot on the Democratic side.  It is likely that interim Senator Martha McSally will be the Republican nominee.  She does, however, have primary opposition.  Her opponent has some money, but not really enough to run a successful campaign.  So unless there is a lot of silent opposition to her among Arizona Republicans, she should win the primary.  (There was one poll that compared Kelly against both McSally and her primary opponent, and the primary opponent did a little bit better but not much better against Kelly.)  In 2018, the Democrats won 5 of the 9 congressional seats and none of the races was particularly close.  At this point, I am not hearing anything out of Arizona that points to any of the primaries being interesting. Continue Reading...

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Bleeding Kansas

In two weeks, Kansas and Missouri will have their state and federal primaries.  (There are also primaries in Arizona, Michigan, and Washington.)  While on the Missouri side of the state line, the biggest race is actually a ballot issue (Medicare expansion which is expected to pass), Kansas has some major races on the Republican primary ballot.

The big one is the U.S. Senate race.  The incumbent Senator — Pat Roberts — is a conservative Republican.  However, that is not enough to guarantee a win in the Republican primary, and Senator Roberts had a tough race in 2014 (only getting 48% of the primary vote for an 8% margin).   Senator Roberts has  decided that forty years in Congress (sixteen in the House and twenty-four in the Senate) is enough and it’s time to enjoy retirement.  And eleven Republicans decided that their names would sound so much better with Senator in front of it.

At this point in the race, it appears that there are three major contenders.  The establishment choice is very conservative Representative Roger Marshall.  Marshall represents the first district of Kansas which covers western and north central Kansas.  Meanwhile, the Tea Party candidate is Spawn of Satan Kris Kobach.  Folks may remember former Secretary of State Kobach as the Republican who lost the governor’s seat in 2018 or as the author of much of the anti-immigrant legislation passed over the past decade.  Finally, there is Bob (Hamilton) the plumber.  Hamilton runs a highly successful plumbing company in the Kansas City area and is trying to paint himself as a Trump clone. Continue Reading...

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Primary Day

Today is primary day in three states.  In two of the three (Alabama and Texas), it is actually primary run-off day as the first round of voting occurred prior to COVID-19 becoming a household word.  In the other state (Maine). today is the actual primary day.  Maine uses ranked-choice voting in its primary which means that voters are casting votes for all rounds of the election today.   In all three states, there are senate primaries to choose challengers, and the results could matter in November.

In Alabama, you have former Senator and Attorney General Jeff Sessions seeking to get his job back against former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville.  Besides his coaching experience, Coach Tuberville appears to have relocated to Florida until just recently and has some ties to some hedge fund fraud.  All of which makes him Trump’s type of candidate as Trump wants to stick it to Attorney General Sessions for only bending the law into a pretzel on some occasions and actually realizing that it would be unethical to head an investigation into a campaign in which he played a significant role.   Now, it’s going to be hard for Democrats to keep this seat in November, but I would rather be running against the former coach for Auburn (the “second” school in Alabama) in the hopes that some Alabama fans who would normally vote Republican might have trouble voting for somebody from Auburn.  Additionally, the scandal involving Coach Tuberville might just become a big deal by November allowing us to narrowly keep the seat over a flawed Republican candidate.  While Democrats rightly loathe the positions that Jeff Sessions took as Attorney General, Alabama is still a deep red state.  If Trump and Sessions decide that they have to make nice after the primary, I think it would be almost impossible to beat Sessions in November.

In Texas, you have almost a replay of the recent Kentucky primary.  The preferred candidate of the national party is a moderate, white, female, military veteran (MJ Hegar).  The other choice is a progressive, male, African-American, state legislator (Royce West).   And, like in Kentucky, you have an incumbent Republican member of the party leadership (John Conryn) who will be a favorite for re-election but could be beatable with the right candidate. Continue Reading...

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June 23rd Primaries

There are a number of primaries tomorrow, also some run-off elections and a Special Election. Some of them are Republican only, and I won’t be commenting on them because I honestly don’t care. For example, some Republican is going to win the runoff to get Mark Meadows seat. Whoever wins, he couldn’t be much worse than Meadows, and will lack his seniority.  (Thanks, I feel better now.) In the Virginia primary, Mark Warner is running unopposed and will keep his Senate seat in November.

The marquee events tomorrow are the Democratic Senate primary in Kentucky, the Special Election for convict (as of August, delayed due to pandemic) Chris Collins’ seat (NY-27) and some of the New York Democratic Congressional primaries: there are 10 of 12 incumbents seeking re-election who are being challenged.

Let’s start with the NY-27th: in 2018, WHILE UNDER INDICTMENT, Collins won over Nate McMurray, 49.1% to 48.8%. McMurray is running again, against state Sen. Chris Jacobs, who was hand-picked by the state Republican Party. Of note, Jacobs was almost tossed off the ballot for voter fraud, but last Friday night, the county DA decided to let bygones be bygones. If McMurray wins (which every well-regarded pollster and prognosticator says can’t possibly happen) in the reddest district in New York State, that would bide very well for a blue tsunami in November. Continue Reading...

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Kentucky Primary and Moscow Mitch

Tuesday is the COVID-19-postponed primary in Kentucky, and a lot has changed since the originally-scheduled date.   And those changes put Democrats in a somewhat familiar position — do you vote for the candidate that most closely resembles your position or the candidate with the best chance to win.

For most of the year, Amy McGrath was the strong favorite to win the race.  She raised a significant amount of money who saw her background (including her veteran status) as potentially appealing to swing voters who will be necessary to beat Moscow Mitch in November.  While she does not have a record, she is perceived as a moderate — a necessity to win in a red state like Kentucky.

In recent weeks, the resurgence of issues surrounding racism have contributed to a surge of support for State Representative Charles Booker.  His status as a person of color and his positioning of himself as a progressive have contributed to this rise in support from Democrats who want to take a stand in the general election. Continue Reading...

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Sunday with the Senators: Moscow Mitch’s Calculus

You may have wondered why Moscow Mitch allowed for a vote to release the whistle blower complaint, and then publicly announced that if the House voted to impeach, the Senate would hold a trial according to established rules. For starters, he’s underwater, with an average -23 favorability. That’s right — that’s average, the latest polling shows him at -24, or 30 favorable/54 unfavorable. He’s got a real challenge running next year against Amy McGrath. There’s no public polling yet, but she’s a strong candidate, and while she lost her last Kentucky race, that gives her the experience necessary to overcome any errors, and let’s face it, while 2018 was a wave, there’s a chance 2020 may be a tsunami. In addition, she raised close to $11 million in Q3, more than most 2020 presidential candidates. Moscow’s numbers for Q3 aren’t out yet, but he had about $7 million CoH at the end of Q2, so she might have bested him.

Mitch didn’t get where he is without being able to read polls, and the constant uptick in voters favoring impeachment has got to be giving him the willies. While there is a dearth of state-by-state numbers, the numbers in favor of the inquiry rise daily, including among Republicans, Evangelicals and white men without college degrees — and that’s not just the Orange Menace’s base, it’s Mitch’s too.

Jeff Flake has said that if there were an impeachment vote in the Senate that was secret, 30 – 35 Republicans would vote to oust General Bone Spurs. But secret isn’t going to cut it, and Moscow Mitch knows that. Thus, he’s keeping his options open. Because his calculus is whether he can, first, keep his seat, and second, hold the Senate in 2020. And those are his only concerns. (No, sorry, folks, he doesn’t actually care about law or history.) Continue Reading...

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