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Category Archives: Senate
Runoffs and Control of the Senate
With less than three weeks to go until election day. A lot of ink has been spilled over how state laws on the receipt and counting of absentee/mail-in ballots could delay knowing who won the presidential election. But it could take even longer to know who will control the U.S. Senate.
One of the reasons is, of course, that the same delay in counting votes for the Presidential election could also delay counting the votes for the Senate elections. However, given where the seats are and the current polling average, I expect that most Senate seats will be called on election night. And it is possible that one party or the other will have a good enough night to get to 51 seats by midnight.
But there is a real chance that control of the Senate will come down to three races. (At the very least, these three races will impact how comfortable the majority is. Both parties have a handful of Senators who will occasionally split on a key vote. Needless to say a 50-50 Senate with Vice-President Harris only voting in the case of a tie is going to be less likely to pass major legislation than a 53-47 Senate especially if the filibuster finally goes the way of the dodo.) And in all three races, the election may not be over on election night.
Also posted in 2020 General Election
Tagged David Perdue, Doug Collins, Georgia, Jon Ossoff, Kelly Loefler, Maine, Raphael Warnock, Sara Gideon, Susan Collins
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Tomorrow’s Massachusetts Primary
Tomorrow is the Massachusetts primary. It’s a fascinating microcosm of campaigns. If you’re a political junkie (LIKE ME!) you’ve been following it really closely. While the 4th CD is a complete toss up (with a bunch of good options), the 1st CD is a battle between a really good guy (Richie Neal) who is being challenged by a guy who skirted the (possibly fake) sexual accusations against him.
Sometimes these challenges make sense — notably this year, Eliot Engel’s loss. Which was no great loss in the grand scheme of things: Engel was not that productive, and he’d lost touch with his District. But Richie Neal? One of the authors of the ACA, and the new NAFTA, Chair of Ways and Means. With a great body of legislative accomplishment that have been good for his district and for the nation. Challenger Alex Morse has said he would have voted against the CARES Act. He felt it didn’t go far enough. This shows a complete naivete of both necessity and political process. You want to be aspirational? Fine. But don’t do it when people need immediate financial relief from disaster. Morse believed that $600 a week wasn’t enough, and the $1,200 wasn’t enough…too many Alex Morses and no one would have gotten anything because those were the top numbers the House was going to be able to wrest from the Senate.
And then there’s the Ed Markey – Joe Kennedy Senate primary, which is actually the race, as the victor will win the seat in November. It’s astounding to me that Kennedy is challenging Markey not so much on issue grounds (their views are similar, although where there is a difference, Markey is more left than Kennedy) but because he’s OLD. No one ever says Ruth Bader Ginsburg is too old, as an aside.
Also posted in Democrats, House of Representatives, Primary Elections
Tagged Alex Morse, Ed Markey, Joe Kennedy, Richie Neal
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August 4 Primaries — Arizona, Michigan, and Washington
As the calendar flips around to August, we are about to hit a rush of state and congressional primaries. Some states (e.g., California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois) hold their state and congressional primaries on the same day as the presidential primary. Others (e.g., Florida) hold a separate presidential primary with the state and congressional primaries occurring later in the year. And most of the states with separate primaries will hold them between August 1 and mid-September. (In addition, there is the postponed Connecticut primary.)
Earlier this week, I discussed the two states holding primaries on August 4 that I am most familiar with (Kansas and Missouri). (And if I hear another ad attacking a hardcore pro-life Republican for saying something even slightly pro-choice fifteen years ago, I may get physically ill.) The other three states holding primaries on August 4 are Arizona, Michigan, and Washington.
In Arizona, the biggest race is the special election for the remaining two years of the Senator John McCain’s term. Mark Kelly is the only candidate on the ballot on the Democratic side. It is likely that interim Senator Martha McSally will be the Republican nominee. She does, however, have primary opposition. Her opponent has some money, but not really enough to run a successful campaign. So unless there is a lot of silent opposition to her among Arizona Republicans, she should win the primary. (There was one poll that compared Kelly against both McSally and her primary opponent, and the primary opponent did a little bit better but not much better against Kelly.) In 2018, the Democrats won 5 of the 9 congressional seats and none of the races was particularly close. At this point, I am not hearing anything out of Arizona that points to any of the primaries being interesting.
Also posted in House of Representatives, Primary Elections
Tagged Arizona, Brenda Jones, Mark Kelly, Martha McSally, Michigan, primary elections, Rashida Tlaib, Washington
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Bleeding Kansas
In two weeks, Kansas and Missouri will have their state and federal primaries. (There are also primaries in Arizona, Michigan, and Washington.) While on the Missouri side of the state line, the biggest race is actually a ballot issue (Medicare expansion which is expected to pass), Kansas has some major races on the Republican primary ballot.
The big one is the U.S. Senate race. The incumbent Senator — Pat Roberts — is a conservative Republican. However, that is not enough to guarantee a win in the Republican primary, and Senator Roberts had a tough race in 2014 (only getting 48% of the primary vote for an 8% margin). Senator Roberts has decided that forty years in Congress (sixteen in the House and twenty-four in the Senate) is enough and it’s time to enjoy retirement. And eleven Republicans decided that their names would sound so much better with Senator in front of it.
At this point in the race, it appears that there are three major contenders. The establishment choice is very conservative Representative Roger Marshall. Marshall represents the first district of Kansas which covers western and north central Kansas. Meanwhile, the Tea Party candidate is Spawn of Satan Kris Kobach. Folks may remember former Secretary of State Kobach as the Republican who lost the governor’s seat in 2018 or as the author of much of the anti-immigrant legislation passed over the past decade. Finally, there is Bob (Hamilton) the plumber. Hamilton runs a highly successful plumbing company in the Kansas City area and is trying to paint himself as a Trump clone.
Also posted in GOP, House of Representatives, Primary Elections
Tagged Bob Hamilton, Kansas, Kris Kobach, Roger Marshall, Steve Watkins
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Primary Day
Today is primary day in three states. In two of the three (Alabama and Texas), it is actually primary run-off day as the first round of voting occurred prior to COVID-19 becoming a household word. In the other state (Maine). today is the actual primary day. Maine uses ranked-choice voting in its primary which means that voters are casting votes for all rounds of the election today. In all three states, there are senate primaries to choose challengers, and the results could matter in November.
In Alabama, you have former Senator and Attorney General Jeff Sessions seeking to get his job back against former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville. Besides his coaching experience, Coach Tuberville appears to have relocated to Florida until just recently and has some ties to some hedge fund fraud. All of which makes him Trump’s type of candidate as Trump wants to stick it to Attorney General Sessions for only bending the law into a pretzel on some occasions and actually realizing that it would be unethical to head an investigation into a campaign in which he played a significant role. Now, it’s going to be hard for Democrats to keep this seat in November, but I would rather be running against the former coach for Auburn (the “second” school in Alabama) in the hopes that some Alabama fans who would normally vote Republican might have trouble voting for somebody from Auburn. Additionally, the scandal involving Coach Tuberville might just become a big deal by November allowing us to narrowly keep the seat over a flawed Republican candidate. While Democrats rightly loathe the positions that Jeff Sessions took as Attorney General, Alabama is still a deep red state. If Trump and Sessions decide that they have to make nice after the primary, I think it would be almost impossible to beat Sessions in November.
In Texas, you have almost a replay of the recent Kentucky primary. The preferred candidate of the national party is a moderate, white, female, military veteran (MJ Hegar). The other choice is a progressive, male, African-American, state legislator (Royce West). And, like in Kentucky, you have an incumbent Republican member of the party leadership (John Conryn) who will be a favorite for re-election but could be beatable with the right candidate.
Also posted in Primary Elections
Tagged Alabama, Betsy Sweet, Bre Kidman, Doug Jones, Jeff Sessions, John Conryn, Maine, MJ Hegar, Royce West, Sara Gideon, Susan Collins, Texas, Tommy Tuberville
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June 23rd Primaries
There are a number of primaries tomorrow, also some run-off elections and a Special Election. Some of them are Republican only, and I won’t be commenting on them because I honestly don’t care. For example, some Republican is going to win the runoff to get Mark Meadows seat. Whoever wins, he couldn’t be much worse than Meadows, and will lack his seniority. (Thanks, I feel better now.) In the Virginia primary, Mark Warner is running unopposed and will keep his Senate seat in November.
The marquee events tomorrow are the Democratic Senate primary in Kentucky, the Special Election for convict (as of August, delayed due to pandemic) Chris Collins’ seat (NY-27) and some of the New York Democratic Congressional primaries: there are 10 of 12 incumbents seeking re-election who are being challenged.
Let’s start with the NY-27th: in 2018, WHILE UNDER INDICTMENT, Collins won over Nate McMurray, 49.1% to 48.8%. McMurray is running again, against state Sen. Chris Jacobs, who was hand-picked by the state Republican Party. Of note, Jacobs was almost tossed off the ballot for voter fraud, but last Friday night, the county DA decided to let bygones be bygones. If McMurray wins (which every well-regarded pollster and prognosticator says can’t possibly happen) in the reddest district in New York State, that would bide very well for a blue tsunami in November.
Also posted in Elections, House of Representatives, Primary Elections
2 Comments
Kentucky Primary and Moscow Mitch
Tuesday is the COVID-19-postponed primary in Kentucky, and a lot has changed since the originally-scheduled date. And those changes put Democrats in a somewhat familiar position — do you vote for the candidate that most closely resembles your position or the candidate with the best chance to win.
For most of the year, Amy McGrath was the strong favorite to win the race. She raised a significant amount of money who saw her background (including her veteran status) as potentially appealing to swing voters who will be necessary to beat Moscow Mitch in November. While she does not have a record, she is perceived as a moderate — a necessity to win in a red state like Kentucky.
In recent weeks, the resurgence of issues surrounding racism have contributed to a surge of support for State Representative Charles Booker. His status as a person of color and his positioning of himself as a progressive have contributed to this rise in support from Democrats who want to take a stand in the general election.
Also posted in Primary Elections
Tagged Amy McGrath, Charles Booker, Kentucky, Mitch McConnell
1 Comment
Sunday with the Senators: Moscow Mitch’s Calculus
You may have wondered why Moscow Mitch allowed for a vote to release the whistle blower complaint, and then publicly announced that if the House voted to impeach, the Senate would hold a trial according to established rules. For starters, he’s underwater, with an average -23 favorability. That’s right — that’s average, the latest polling shows him at -24, or 30 favorable/54 unfavorable. He’s got a real challenge running next year against Amy McGrath. There’s no public polling yet, but she’s a strong candidate, and while she lost her last Kentucky race, that gives her the experience necessary to overcome any errors, and let’s face it, while 2018 was a wave, there’s a chance 2020 may be a tsunami. In addition, she raised close to $11 million in Q3, more than most 2020 presidential candidates. Moscow’s numbers for Q3 aren’t out yet, but he had about $7 million CoH at the end of Q2, so she might have bested him.
Mitch didn’t get where he is without being able to read polls, and the constant uptick in voters favoring impeachment has got to be giving him the willies. While there is a dearth of state-by-state numbers, the numbers in favor of the inquiry rise daily, including among Republicans, Evangelicals and white men without college degrees — and that’s not just the Orange Menace’s base, it’s Mitch’s too.
Jeff Flake has said that if there were an impeachment vote in the Senate that was secret, 30 – 35 Republicans would vote to oust General Bone Spurs. But secret isn’t going to cut it, and Moscow Mitch knows that. Thus, he’s keeping his options open. Because his calculus is whether he can, first, keep his seat, and second, hold the Senate in 2020. And those are his only concerns. (No, sorry, folks, he doesn’t actually care about law or history.)
Also posted in Sunday with the Senators
Tagged Mitch McConnell, MoscowMitch
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